Bad news for the job market could be good news for inflation

Jun 13, 2024
Initial jobless claims hit a 10-month high last week. If that takes pressure off prices, the Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates.
Higher unemployment can contribute to the cooling of inflation, but it comes at the expense of people's livelihoods.
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Economists used the business cycle to predict what's next. It doesn't work so well anymore.

Apr 23, 2024
Where's the recession? Changes like the pandemic crash and government funding programs have disrupted the expansion-contraction pattern.
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Recent college grads see rise in unemployment

Apr 23, 2024
Unemployment jumped from 8.6% to 12.3% among 20-somethings with bachelor's degrees year over year, the BLS reported.
"This is the first sign of [the job market] not being as strong as I thought it was," said Patricia Anderson with Dartmouth.
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How immigrant entrepreneurs help create jobs and boost the economy

Immigrants are much more likely to create a new business, studies show, and the knock-on effect is job creation.
"Immigrant entrepreneurs in the U.S. are associated with a net gain in jobs. Specifically, they're responsible for roughly one in four of all jobs in young firms," said Marketplace senior economics contributor Chris Farrell.
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The consistent unemployment gap between Black and white workers

Unpacking the persistent 2-to-1 unemployment gap between Black and white workers.
"That disparity between Black and white workers is something that remains really a defining feature, unfortunately, of the U.S labor market," said  Valerie Wilson of the Economic Policy Institute’s Program on Race, Ethnicity and the Economy.
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Black unemployment seems to be rising. But other indicators of Black employment are strong.

Apr 8, 2024
It's possible that higher unemployment means more Black workers are coming back into the labor market.
The recent Black unemployment rate uptick is worth watching, said economist Elise Gould. But, she points out that it's still quite low by any historical measure.
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Forward-looking economic indicators turn positive

Mar 22, 2024
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index turned positive in February for the first time since February 2022. That's a sign that the economy will avoid a recession this year, even if it slows down.
Stock prices, manufacturing orders, credit availability and other indicators all give us hints about future economic activity.
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For public good, not for profit.

Strong, stable labor market may signal new normal to Federal Reserve

Mar 21, 2024
Unemployment claims fell last week. Despite relatively high interest rates, they're below pre-pandemic levels and near historic lows.
Job cuts have been concentrated at big tech and finance companies, said Andy Challenger at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Above, Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his news conference Wednesday.
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Small businesses find some relief after struggling to hire

Mar 21, 2024
They’re less concerned about recruitment challenges, according to an NFIB survey and several indicators.
Job cuts at some big firms have been good for small businesses, which can market themselves to prospective employees as more stable companies.
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Recent immigrants have filled labor gaps, boosted job creation, experts say

Mar 15, 2024
There has been a wave of migration to the U.S. — legal and not — since 2022. Many who entered are finding and keeping jobs.
In 2022 and 2023, 5.9 million people migrated to the U.S., according to the Congressional Budget Office.
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