For well over a year, the interest paid by long-term Treasury bonds has been lower than that of shorter-term debt. But a recession hasn't happened yet.
The yield for a two-year note is roughly a whole percentage point higher than the yield on the 10-year Treasury right now. And that often precedes a recession.
Some recent economic indicators suggest the risk of a recession in the U.S. over the next 12 to 18 months is diminishing.
The federal government sells more than a dozen different kinds of bonds. They all have very different purposes.
This time around, it may not be telling us that a recession's on the way.
Historically, an inverted yield curve has spelled recession.
A lot of attention is being paid right now to what’s known as the yield curve. And if you don’t know what that is, it’s essentially the difference between interest rates on short-term and long-term government bonds. In a growing economy, you typically see higher rates on the 10-year Treasury note than you do on […]
The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today to talk interest rates. The Fed is expected to raise its target rate by a quarter of a point for the second time this year. And with unemployment reaching a new low last month and inflation creeping up, analysts expect officials to keep raising rates […]
Many investors focus on the stock market. But the bond market’s been doing some interesting things lately, things that are getting investors’ and economists’ attention. Since the beginning of this year, there’s been a decided flattening of the yield curve on Treasuries — the difference between the interest rates on short-term bonds and those that […]