Recession fears may be receding

Nov 7, 2019
Some recent economic indicators suggest the risk of a recession in the U.S. over the next 12 to 18 months is diminishing.
Some jovial traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in 2009.
Don Emmert/AFP via Getty Images

A guided tour of the yield curve

Aug 15, 2019
The federal government sells more than a dozen different kinds of bonds. They all have very different purposes.
Traders work before the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange where the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 800 points after talk of an inverted yield curve on August 14, 2019 in New York City.
Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images

Why this yield curve inversion could be different

Aug 14, 2019
This time around, it may not be telling us that a recession's on the way.
Investors, spooked by economic fears, dumped stocks on Wednesday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 800 points. Above, the New York Stock Exchange.
Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images

When the yield curve inverts, how nervous should we be?

May 29, 2019
Historically, an inverted yield curve has spelled recession.
The New York Stock Exchange on a rainy day in New York City last week.
Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images

Is the yield curve talking to us?

Jun 28, 2018
A lot of attention is being paid right now to what’s known as the yield curve. And if you don’t know what that is, it’s essentially the difference between interest rates on short-term and long-term government bonds. In a growing economy, you typically see higher rates on the 10-year Treasury note than you do on […]

The Fed talks interest rates with an eye toward the yield curve

Jun 12, 2018
The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today to talk interest rates. The Fed is expected to raise its target rate by a quarter of a point for the second time this year. And with unemployment reaching a new low last month and inflation creeping up, analysts expect officials to keep raising rates […]

What is the bond market trying to tell us about the economy?

Jun 30, 2017
Many investors focus on the stock market. But the bond market’s been doing some interesting things lately, things that are getting investors’ and economists’ attention. Since the beginning of this year, there’s been a decided flattening of the yield curve on Treasuries — the difference between the interest rates on short-term bonds and those that […]

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WHITEBOARD: What is a yield curve?

Sep 12, 2011
If you've been following what the Federal Reserve is doing with the interest rate of late, you have probably heard them talk about the yield curve...