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Yield curve

Why the inverted yield curve is typically a recession predictor

by Stacey Vanek Smith
Sep 12, 2024
But this time may be different. One theory is that weaker data allowed companies to prepare and soften the economic landing.
The yield curve in the U.S. Treasury market has been singing a scary tune for nearly two years. So where's the recession?
Torsten Asmus/Getty Images
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Japan loosens its grip on long-term interest rates

by Justin Ho
Oct 31, 2023
The Bank of Japan’s "yield curve control policy" could be on its way out as central banks around the world raise rates to beat inflation.
Until recently, the Bank of Japan was trying to keep interest rates on bonds low to stimulate the economy. Above, the Bank of Japan building.
Richard A. Brooks/AFP via Getty Images
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An inverted yield curve usually signals recession. Is it wrong this time?

by Matt Levin
Sep 7, 2023
For well over a year, the interest paid by long-term Treasury bonds has been lower than that of shorter-term debt. But a recession hasn't happened yet.
When the yield curve inverts, it indicates that bond investors are betting on a coming recession.
Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images
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The bond market yield curve is inverted — which some economists think foreshadows a downturn

by Sabri Ben-Achour
Mar 2, 2023
The yield for a two-year note is roughly a whole percentage point higher than the yield on the 10-year Treasury right now. And that often precedes a recession.
A 10-year bond theoretically locks up your money for 10 years in exchange for some yield or other. But its worth depends on the what the future looks like with inflation, interest rates and the economy.
VallarieE/Getty Images
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Recession fears may be receding

by Mitchell Hartman
Nov 7, 2019
Some recent economic indicators suggest the risk of a recession in the U.S. over the next 12 to 18 months is diminishing.
Some jovial traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in 2009.
Don Emmert/AFP via Getty Images
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A guided tour of the yield curve

by Justin Ho
Aug 15, 2019
The federal government sells more than a dozen different kinds of bonds. They all have very different purposes.
Traders work before the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange where the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 800 points after talk of an inverted yield curve on August 14, 2019 in New York City.
Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images
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Why this yield curve inversion could be different

by Justin Ho
Aug 14, 2019
This time around, it may not be telling us that a recession's on the way.
Investors, spooked by economic fears, dumped stocks on Wednesday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 800 points. Above, the New York Stock Exchange.
Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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When the yield curve inverts, how nervous should we be?

by Tracey Samuelson
May 29, 2019
Historically, an inverted yield curve has spelled recession.
The New York Stock Exchange on a rainy day in New York City last week.
Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images
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Is the yield curve talking to us?

by Jed Kim
Jun 28, 2018
A lot of attention is being paid right now to what’s known as the yield curve. And if you don’t know what that is, it’s essentially the difference between interest rates on short-term and long-term government bonds. In a growing economy, you typically see higher rates on the 10-year Treasury note than you do on […]
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The Fed talks interest rates with an eye toward the yield curve

by Amy Scott
Jun 12, 2018
The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today to talk interest rates. The Fed is expected to raise its target rate by a quarter of a point for the second time this year. And with unemployment reaching a new low last month and inflation creeping up, analysts expect officials to keep raising rates […]
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