During the summer and early fall, there were multiple warning signs that recession risk for the U.S. economy was rising: the yield curve inverted, manufacturing activity fell and business leaders reported feeling more pessimistic.
But while economic growth is undoubtedly slowing, the risk of outright recession appears to be fading for now. Three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have buoyed mortgage lending, and consumer sentiment and spending are relatively robust. The yield curve has, for the moment, reverted to the norm. And while monthly job growth has slowed, it is still strong enough to absorb new entrants to the workforce and keep the unemployment rate near historic lows.
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