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Recession fears may be receding

Mitchell Hartman Nov 7, 2019
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Some jovial traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in 2009. Don Emmert/AFP via Getty Images

Recession fears may be receding

Mitchell Hartman Nov 7, 2019
Some jovial traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in 2009. Don Emmert/AFP via Getty Images
HTML EMBED:
COPY

During the summer and early fall, there were multiple warning signs that recession risk for the U.S. economy was rising: the yield curve inverted, manufacturing activity fell and business leaders reported feeling more pessimistic.

But while economic growth is undoubtedly slowing, the risk of outright recession appears to be fading for now. Three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have buoyed mortgage lending, and consumer sentiment and spending are relatively robust. The yield curve has, for the moment, reverted to the norm. And while monthly job growth has slowed, it is still strong enough to absorb new entrants to the workforce and keep the unemployment rate near historic lows.

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