Forward-looking economic indicators turn positive

Mar 22, 2024
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index turned positive in February for the first time since February 2022. That's a sign that the economy will avoid a recession this year, even if it slows down.
Stock prices, manufacturing orders, credit availability and other indicators all give us hints about future economic activity.
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What's the best way to predict where the economy is headed?

Jul 20, 2023
Some question the predictive powers of the The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, a past predictor of recessions.
While investors may be closely watching The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, economists caution it may not be as predictive as it once was.
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This little-known accounting measure is ringing an economic warning bell

Jul 12, 2023
The level of corporate earnings manipulation is similar to that of other pre-recessionary periods, according to the M-Score.
The M-Score was used to flag Enron as having an elevated risk of fraud years before the company filed for bankruptcy.
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Economic indicators can't tell us the economy's whole story

Jun 23, 2023
The manufacturing sector is shrinking, according to a report. But that doesn’t account for people’s spending or the tight labor market.
"If you move beyond the vibes and look at the hard data, we’re creating jobs at a gangbusters pace, unemployment is at a 50-year low," says Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan. "This ain’t a recession, man."
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U.S. money supply is shrinking. Does that mean we’re all doomed?

Jun 13, 2023
Movements in money supply matter, but not as much as they used to.
The U.S. money supply is falling for the first time in the modern era.
Naser Jafari/Tasnim News/AFP via Getty Images

What can the beer market tell us about the economy?

Mar 17, 2023
A beer industry group's data shows a steep decline for the craft segment in February as consumers spent more consciously.
While seltzer sales saw an uptick last year, craft beer sales declined.
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How hides, tallow and rosin can help us understand where the economy is headed

Mar 14, 2023
An explanation of the CRB raw industrials spot price index, a “predictor” of macroeconomic trends.
Tannery students process the washed rawhide of a cow. Today, animal hides are used in the production of some food products, like wine.
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The impact of survey fatigue on key economic indicators

Mar 7, 2023
Response rates to The Bureau of Labor Statistics' JOLTS report are continuing to waver according to Bloomberg reporter, Reade Pickert.
Survey fatigue is impacting response rates to important economic data surveys.
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After a flurry of toy purchases fueled by the pandemic, toy company Hasbro recently reported layoffs and cratering sales.
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Leading economic indicators fall — again

Jan 25, 2023
The Conference Board's closely-watched index has fallen consistently since February 2022, indicating higher risk of recession.
The closely-watched Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell in its latest report, painting a gloomy macroeconomic picture for the near future.
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