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Economic indicators

We probably aren't in a recession — but these indicators will tell us if and when we are

by Mitchell Hartman
Dec 19, 2022
Some signs are already flashing red. Job creation and consumer spending, though, are still chugging along.
“The labor market is still strong," said ZipRecruiter's Julia Pollak. But if it weakens, the U.S. economy may have already entered a recession.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
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How do we know if inflation is really slowing down?

by Kristin Schwab
Dec 1, 2022
Inflation has dipped slightly, according to a key measure known as the PCE. But economists have their favorite indicators.
Economist Betsey Stevenson is taking an experiential approach to gauging inflation — like when will grocery store sticker shock end?
Elijah Nouvelage/AFP via Getty Images
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As the economy gets more complex, we might need new ways to measure it

by David Brancaccio , Chris Farrell and Rose Conlon
Jan 4, 2022
From jobs to inflation, our economic statistics are ripe for change.
From jobs to inflation, our economic statistics are ripe for change.
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Orders for durable goods remain strong, despite dipping in July

by Mitchell Hartman
Aug 25, 2021
The decline's mostly down to slipping orders for airplanes, while the core number increased by almost the same amount as in June.
Orders for durable goods, including large appliances, dipped 0.1% in July, largely because of weakness in transportation equipment.
Scott Olson via Getty Images
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As an economic indicator, copper is worth its weight in gold

by Matt Levin
Aug 20, 2021
Copper has long been seen as an economic predictor. So why are prices dipping, and what are the implications?
Copper scrap left over from machining. The price of the commodity reached an all-time high in the spring but has recently declined.
Scott Olson via Getty Images
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Do we really want to go back to the pre-pandemic economy?

by Kristin Schwab
Apr 29, 2021
True, the economy was in good shape before COVID-19. But it wasn't working for many.
Before the pandemic, Black workers were seeing historically low unemployment rates but were still almost twice as likely to be jobless as white workers. Above, a woman in Hollywood, Florida, uses her laptop to file for unemployment benefits in March 2020.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
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U.S. productivity plummeted in Q4, and reopening the economy might be why

by Kai Ryssdal and Sean McHenry
Mar 4, 2021
The measure fell at the steepest rate in 40 years, but that might not be as ominous as it sounds — if the trend is short term.
Less productive businesses like restaurants have started to reopen, which may be causing national productivity data to decline.
Scott Heins/Getty Images
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How economic data has been distorted during COVID-19

by Janet Nguyen
Aug 20, 2020
Let’s do the numbers … but with more context.
artisteer/Getty Images
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COVID-19

How economists are keeping up in the fast-paced COVID-19 recession

by Sabri Ben-Achour
Apr 23, 2020
Quarterly and monthly data, like GDP and the unemployment rate, don't really give us a picture of what is happening today.
Economists are using real-time data in the COVID-19 pandemic and recession.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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COVID-19

Economic disruption could lead to less reliable economic data

by Mitchell Hartman
Mar 12, 2020
The COVID-19 epidemic may make it harder for government agencies to track and report rapid changes in the U.S. economy.
Economic data could become less reliable as people change their behaviors during the coronavirus pandemic.
Jeenah Moon/Getty Images
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