What’s next for Main Street, Wall Street as Fed lending programs are set to expire
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Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told the Federal Reserve Thursday that he wants his money back. Well, not his money, but rather $455 million from the CARES Act.
This money supported about a half a dozen Fed programs that stabilized credit markets. The Fed, meanwhile, has all but said directly that’s a bad idea.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the time to end these programs was “not soon.” So what did these programs do?
In different ways, these programs allowed the Fed to get down and dirty in the mud of credit markets. So for example, a couple of them allowed the Fed to actually buy corporate bonds.
Another allowed the Fed to buy short-term bonds from state and local governments. Another allowed it to indirectly buy up car loans and student loans.
“They stood there and said, ‘We’ll be a buyer of these things; we will support these markets,'” said Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at StoneX. Now the reason we care that the Fed could buy these securities is that for a while there in this pandemic, it was looking like nobody else would.
And if nobody wants to buy up, for example, loans, people aren’t gonna get as many loans. And loans are what kept some businesses alive and local governments functioning.
“You’re talking about essentially the entire credit markets could have froze or nearly froze if the Fed didn’t step in with these facilities,” Abbasi said.
The Fed supported credit markets, so credit markets could support people.
“They allow for there to be liquidity or money available to banks or institutions to have them to be able to lend you money,” said Chris Campbell, chief strategist at Duff & Phelps and former assistant secretary of the Treasury.
By all accounts, these programs worked.
“Treasury felt that it has succeeded so well that it’s no longer necessary,” said Edward Altman, professor emeritus of finance at New York University.
Altman sees that as ill-advised, given the looming threat of further shutdowns. Secretary Mnuchin has said businesses need grants now, not loans.
The $455 billion in question could be repurposed into a miniature stimulus deal before a new president is sworn in.
COVID-19 Economy FAQs
So what’s up with “Zoom fatigue”?
It’s a real thing. The science backs it up — there’s new research from Stanford University. So why is it that the technology can be so draining? Jeremy Bailenson with Stanford’s Virtual Human Interaction Lab puts it this way: “It’s like being in an elevator where everyone in the elevator stopped and looked right at us for the entire elevator ride at close-up.” Bailenson said turning off self-view and shrinking down the video window can make interactions feel more natural and less emotionally taxing.
How are Americans spending their money these days?
Economists are predicting that pent-up demand for certain goods and services is going to burst out all over as more people get vaccinated. A lot of people had to drastically change their spending in the pandemic because they lost jobs or had their hours cut. But at the same time, most consumers “are still feeling secure or optimistic about their finances,” according to Candace Corlett, president of WSL Strategic Retail, which regularly surveys shoppers. A lot of people enjoy browsing in stores, especially after months of forced online shopping. And another area expecting a post-pandemic boost: travel.
What happened to all of the hazard pay essential workers were getting at the beginning of the pandemic?
Almost a year ago, when the pandemic began, essential workers were hailed as heroes. Back then, many companies gave hazard pay, an extra $2 or so per hour, for coming in to work. That quietly went away for most of them last summer. Without federal action, it’s mostly been up to local governments to create programs and mandates. They’ve helped compensate front-line workers, but they haven’t been perfect. “The solutions are small. They’re piecemeal,” said Molly Kinder at the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program. “You’re seeing these innovative pop-ups because we have failed overall to do something systematically.”
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