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Have we learned from the collapse?

Counting pennies

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TESS VIGELAND: So here's an admission. The financial crisis of the last year scared me straight. Every day I watched headline after headline roll across about another huge bank on the edge of death, the Dow rising and falling by 800, 900 points a day.

Our family did little things, like making coffee at home instead of stopping at Starbucks on the way to work. And big things, like putting together an emergency fund. Even for those of us lucky enough to keep our jobs, the fear was palpable, intimate, because it was our money at stake, yet utterly global in scale.

By February, when stocks hit bottom we wondered if it might take decades to recover. Less than six months after that Newsweek's cover story blared "The Recession is Over!" And now, maybe we can admit, we're feeling better.

So where does that leave our promises to change our ways? How quickly can we forget the lessons of the year since the collapse of Lehman Brothers? Can a leopard change its spots? First, some thoughts from the streets of New Orleans, Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Portland.

What, if anything, did you learn from this past year?


Man #1: I don't think one year's going to make a difference. They'll go back to their old habits.

Woman #1: I think we'll probably be changed forever.

Man #2: They've had to learn a lesson.

Woman #2: I don't think so. I mean, if a person goes to jail, they find this new belief in God and everything. But when they get out and they know good times are ahead, it's like, "OK, who cares?"

Man #3: There won't be any lesson learned out of this mess, because human nature's what it is.

Woman #3: And I think mostly as Americans, we have a tendency to learn our lesson. We look at history, we see what history brings us and then we have a tendency to adjust. Not all of us.

We look at history and we adjust. Really? Aren't we kind of known for our short memories? We put the leopard question to folks whose job it is to ponder such things.

Author and personal finance columnist Liz Pulliam Weston starts us off.

Liz Pulliam Weston: People are changing their behaviors. And the obvious question is, is this going to last? I think for certain people it will. I think for those in their 20s, who had never experienced a recession before, this was one great wake-up call.

I do think a lot of people are learning lessons. They're seeing dramatically how important an emergency fund is. You know, and emergency funds are sexy. Who would've thought that would ever happen? That is really cool. That said, I do think as soon as credit eases up, you will see folks, a lot of people, going back to some of their old habits. But maybe something will be in the back of their mind now, that they shouldn't count on things going super well forever.

Kurt Andersen: I'm Kurt Andersen, I'm the host of Studio 360 and the author of "Reset: How This Crisis Can Restore Our Values And Renew America."

For two centuries plus, so far, that's what we, the American leopard, have done repeatedly, is we have one kind of spotting for a decade or more and then we switch to a different approach to spending and getting and buying and all the rest and we go back and forth. This last period has been an exceptionally long one of a certain kind of American paradigm, a quarter century. So one does wonder has it been so long, that we've forgotten what the old ways were like. But I'm hopeful.

Felix Salmon: I'm Felix Salmon. I'm the finance blogger for Reuters.

I see this is a reversion to the mean. We overshot, we borrowed way too much, and we're back to the levels that which we were borrowing a few years ago and those levels were entirely sustainable. They're still pretty high in the grand scheme of things, there's still quite a lot of consumer borrowing going on. It's just not as ridiculously excessive, they're being a bit more sensible about things.

Jane Bryant Quinn: I'm Jane Bryant Quinn. I'm a financial writer and author. My current book is "Smart and Simple Financial Strategies for Busy People."

We do have short memories. I think it may even have been Benjamin Franklin who said, more or less, everybody lives to the highest standard of living that they can afford, because that's what you want to do. That's just human nature. That's how it works out.

Do I think that if all of our troubles straightened out, people would want to be borrowing money and spending again? Yes, I do. The reason I think it won't happen is that I believe that we will be constrained, simply because we're not going to have the money and the banks won't be lending as much and it will much more difficult to build yourself up on debt.

Chris Farrell: I'm Chris Farrell. I'm the economics editor for Marketplace Money.

I am convinced that this is one of those traumatic periods in our history that does have a dramatic influence on the way we spend and the way we save. First of all, we haven't had wage increases in a long time, and we're not going to get wage increases, so that's one factor.

And another factor is, a great taboo was broken during the Great Recession that we just went through. Companies became comfortable after the early 1980s with mass layoffs. Well, now furloughs, benefit cuts. So I think that's going to continue to weigh on people.

And the final factor that I would say is, everything went down at once -- home values went down, the stock market went down -- I think that's going to haunt people for a long period of time.

Nick Retsinas: My name is Nick Retsinas. I am the director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University here in Cambridge, Mass.

I think the leopard can change spots; I don't know if it can change species. I think for investors, no, people will still be looking for the deal, looking for the financing that makes sense and are willing to be optimistic that they're really downplaying or understating what the risk is.

In terms of the larger population that buys and sells, you know, I think the memories will be lasting. Will they be eternal? No. But I think for the next decade or so, it's pretty clear that people won't assume that they can make money owning a house and that ought to be the primary motivation.

Knight Kiplinger: I'm Knight Kiplinger, editor-in-chief of Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine and Kiplinger.com.

You know, people turn very cautious when they are fearful. And that cautiousness is driving today's boom in savings. But remember, this new frugality has only pushed the savings rate up to about 5 percent. We have a long way to go to turn this frugal chic into a traditional habit of savings, which used to be the norm in America -- that 10 percent, 12 percent savings rate, which we had a generation or two ago. But I think that we can log a fairly consistent 7 or 8 percent. I'm pretty positive, pretty optimistic that this is an achievable new norm in America.

An achievable new norm. Let's ask once again whether you agree.

Man #4: I certainly think that people are a lot more aware. You won't see that happen again. People aren't going to rush to go into these things with that much risk.

Man #5: What has it been, a year-and-a-half, and it's getting better now? So I mean ... it seems like it can almost be shrugged off.

Woman #4: I think spending foolishly is the American way.

Woamn #5: I think this is a wake-up call to, in fact, crawl out of our illusion and get real.

Man #6: I think that the country as a whole is more careful for a few minutes and then they'll just go right back to their spending ways. Because once someone is careful for too long, then they freak out and spend all their money right away.

Uh-oh. Let's hope not.

You know, lots of Americans were mad that they were bailing out people who didn't make wise financial decisions, from bank CEOs to homeowners. So when it comes to changing our spots, will we -- should we -- take more responsibility for our own financial literacy?

Here again, Jane Bryant Quinn.

Quinn: I think that there is all too much blaming the victim here, Tess. Obviously, we are responsible for ourselves. Presumably, we should have read through all 29 pages of the mortgage document and understood every word of it. But the fact is that people don't do that. And even if you read it through, you wouldn't understand. And even when you got to the table, they always change the terms. And I think that a great deal of the blame needs to fall on the mortgage companies, on the bankers that made a lot of money on them and ran.

And what about those banks, Wall Street.

My Marketplace colleague Kai Ryssdal often scans the morning headlines: "TOXIC ASSETS REPACKAGED," "INVESTOR APPETITE FOR RISK RETURNS."

And he pronounces:

Kai Ryssdal: What we have here is a crisis wasted.

Reuters' Felix Salmon tends to agree.

Salmon: I don't think Wall Street's learned a lesson at all. The minute that Wall Street started being able to borrow money again, it jumped in with both feet. And it's been borrowing money all year this year, basically since March. It's just been borrowing more than you can possibly imagine -- trillions of dollars in new corporate debt issuance. It seems that Wall Street has already forgotten the dangers of too much debt.

Vigeland: Then what is the danger that we as the average investor will forget as well and start investing in the things that they tell us to?

Salmon: Well that's a real risk, because we don't have a lot of choice as individuals. We can basically invest in stocks and bonds and bond funds, really, and that's about it. And if Wall Street is just taking those markets and making them riskier and riskier, then that's ultimately what we as individual investors are going to wind up investing in. So, it's a risk for us on an individual level.

And finally, what about all those comparisons to the Great Depression? Certainly our parents and grandparents changed their spots after seeing the bread lines and panics of the stock market crash. But as for us?

Here again, Liz Pulliam Weston.

Weston: I have always thought that this Great Depression talk was way overblown. I don't think anybody who's studied the Great Depression would see more than superficial parallels to what we've got now. You know, we're talking about a recession that might be over at this point. But I just can't see that it's going to have the huge and lasting impact that the Great Depression had on that Greatest Generation.

About the author

Tess Vigeland is the host of Marketplace Money, where she takes a deep dive into why we do what we do with our money. Follow Tess on Twitter @radiotess
Lance Owen's picture
Lance Owen - Sep 16, 2009

It is doubtfull the world markets will ever learn from thier mistakes. I mean how many times do they need to hit that brick wall! Economys are a delicate balancing act don't you know.
Thanks for the great info. Will look forward to coming back again to see what's new. Cheers. Please feel free to visit my site
http://www.greatforexspot.com

Jean Caldwell's picture
Jean Caldwell - Sep 14, 2009

Thanks for including Felix Salmon's comments on investing options for individuals, and whether Wall St. has our interests at heart. It articulated something I have been thinking for many months about the paradigm of investment options, and what to do given the recent actions by Wall Street.

Steve Fielding's picture
Steve Fielding - Sep 14, 2009

Only those that have not lost something during this recession are the ones that have not learned their lesson. I live in the rust belt and I still find that parking lots are full at restaurants, movie theaters, grocery stores, gas stations, etc..

The prices of items have continued to raise while we continue to pay them. I don't think we'll be out of the woods until Americans realize that we need to do more saving than spending. And that in a free market, we can control the prices with our buying power.

Mark Sorensen's picture
Mark Sorensen - Sep 13, 2009

Thank you for your commentators insights. As a small business owner with his pulse on the real economy, this is just what I wanted to hear - namely that everybody thinks the crisis is over and brighter days lay ahead. Fools never learn. All I can say is look out below!

Fred Biggles's picture
Fred Biggles - Sep 13, 2009

I'm surprised that they said that wall street has not learned from the crisis. I think they learned very well that there is very little consequence for making risky investments. The executives still get their multi-million dollar bonuses and the government will bail them out. They've learned they're pretty much immune.

In my lifetime there's been the savings and loan collapse, the enron scandal, and now this. And wall street knows they can push for deregulation and pretty much get what they want from congress. No one in government is looking out for you and me; they don't care. They only care about their own bank accounts.

J Ringer's picture
J Ringer - Sep 12, 2009

I was shocked as I listened to your show this afternoon. I know a number of people who have been unemployed more than a year and there are no prospects of them working again EVER. They are all in their 50's. How in the world do you expect recovery? I don't. Are all these economists on the East Coast? Because I can tell you in rural America and in the Rust Belt there are no jobs ahead. They have been shipped overseas PERMANENTLY.

Ron Hill's picture
Ron Hill - Sep 12, 2009

The global economy depends on the U.S. for consumerism, not its production of goods.
U.S. industry (and it workers) sold out to its greed and "easy money" when the doors to international agreements (i.e. technical assistance programs) were opened decades ago ... selling this country's competitive advantages and giving foreigners the key to our future as a dominant industrial power.
Now, unless the we can take the steps to reverse this dynamic, the middle class (we) will continue to do all the heavy-lifting, we will continue to provide the debt/tax base needed for financial institutions, politicians, the government and we will continue our role as consumerized pawns in the chess match for survival.

Jerry Robinson's picture
Jerry Robinson - Sep 12, 2009

It's not over.... People tend to forget that the stocks go up and down.. and the Gov't has spent it's nut...

a - Commercial Real Estate is quietly shrinking... not an overnight collapse... but you look at Flint, Detroit, and Milwaukee.. and you ask yourself if that is the future...

b - The Retirement Tsunami is coming.. that is not going to see a big rise in consumer spending or new housing... so this will not help the economy....

c - When a job need is created... Will it happen first offshore our here in the US.. that the a "BIG ABSENCE" in the stories out there... A job here has to pay MORE.... A job here has more regulatory/cost issues here.. Some companies (like HP) have found a whole dynamic buisness in buying up US companies and offshoring the work... They won't "all of a sudden" start creating more US jobs... and this not a few jobs... it's millions... pretty simple to see the trend...

Frugal won't be enough...

Gary W's picture
Gary W - Sep 12, 2009

"I have always thought that this Great Depression talk was way overblown. I don't think anybody who's studied the Great Depression would see more than superficial parallels to what we've got now." -- Liz Pulliam Weston

Anybody who has studied the Great Depression knows that there wasn't a sudden drop into destitution in 1929. It took 4 years to get there. It's still too early to call because in 2010 & 2011 there will be another MASSIVE wave of foreclosures as debt deflation takes its toll nationally.

I think those people who stopped spending and started saving wisely realize that. I'm betting my money with the 10% of economists that got it right, and they are still forecasting trouble ahead.

Emerson Garver's picture
Emerson Garver - Sep 11, 2009

People with money seem to forget that poor and or jobless people cannot help the recovery.Unless businesses stop cutting workers and wages or increasing automation, nobody will be able to get this nation out of debt. There are 6.7 billion people on earth, maybe 2.5 billion families. Will there be that many jobs available in the future? Especially with so many Tinks expanding? I do not think so.