0

Experts see solid signs that China growth is slowing

People shopping in a supermarket on March 9, 2012 in Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province of China.

To view this content, Javascript must be enabled and Adobe Flash Player must be installed.

Get Adobe Flash player

Jeremy Hobson: Well now to a story that's getting a lot of attention this morning. A respected analyst at JP Morgan in Hong Kong says China's economy is already experiencing a quote "hard landing." And of course a slowdown in China could have big implications for our economy. According to Bloomberg, the analyst says, "It's not a debate anymore, it's a fact."

Adolfo Laurenti is deputy chief economist with Mesirow Financial, and he's with us live from Chicago to discuss. Good morning.

Adolfo Laurenti: Good morning.

Hobson: Well, Adolfo, do you agree that China's slowdown is really happening -- that it's in full swing?

Laurenti: There is no question China's slowing down right now. I think it's in the eye of the beholder to define "hard landing" -- according to that report is a 6 percent growth, which I would say for our standard would be very positive. But clearly it's not China growing the way it was until a couple of years ago. So something is happening in China, and we should pay very close attention.

Hobson: And if that is happening, Adolfo, is that the kind of thing that could lower demand; bring down prices of things like gas here in this country? Could it actually help our economy?

Laurenti: It's a double-edged sword. We always think about China as a source of export to the United States. But in reality, we also sell a lot of goods and services to China, so in that respect, the "hard landing" would not be good news.

Yes, the energy prices would come down; commodity prices would come down. But we also have to keep in mind that, unlike energy, commodities are just a small portion of the overall cost of our product. So the overall impact is not going to be as big as we may expect.

Hobson: Adolfo Laurenti, deputy chief economist with Mesirow Financial, thanks so much.

Laurenti: Thank you.

About the author

Jeremy Hobson is host of Marketplace Morning Report, where he looks at business news from a global perspective to prepare listeners for the day ahead.