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Why are bond yields so high right now?

Oct 23, 2023
The yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly hit 5%, the highest level since 2007. A resilient economy and expanding debt are pushing rates up.
For a while, bond markets expected a weaker economy and possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024.
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As the labor market loosens, workers may be more willing to work nights and weekends

Oct 20, 2023
They may find it attractive to earn money while others are playing.
"People are reconsidering their income needs and maybe could find ways to time their classes, time their childcare, to what the employers are offering," said Penn State Abington economics professor Lonnie Golden.
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Fed chair Powell's latest speech hints at caution regarding interest rates

Oct 20, 2023
Jerome Powell spoke Oct. 19 and said the Federal Open Market Committee would be "proceeding carefully."
“Given the uncertainties and risks, and given how far we’ve come, the committee is proceeding carefully," Powell said.
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Did retail sales grow because we bought more stuff, or did the stuff get more expensive?

Oct 17, 2023
The way the Census Bureau calculates its retail sales data wasn't an issue until prices started rising a couple years back.
Grocery store spending rose 0.4% in September, according to the Census Bureau.
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September's real wages are expected to rise

Oct 9, 2023
And that would mean your paycheck's purchasing power would be getting a boost relative to inflation.
Rising real wages means consumers are "making up for the consumption power that they lost when prices were rising faster than wages," says Erica Groshen, former Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner.
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When will prices go back down?

Oct 6, 2023
The answer might disappoint you.
Inflation is slowing, but when will prices go back down? Above: Shoppers walk through a grocery store in Washington, DC.
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The job market might finally be returning to "normal," economists say

Oct 5, 2023
Experts are predicting a slight decrease in wage growth, a drop that get us closer to pre-pandemic rates.
New September job market data comes out Friday, and economists expect we'll see a little less payroll growth than in August.
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Most CEOs are confident about the future of the economy and their own company

Oct 5, 2023
But fewer CEOs feel confident of their firm’s fortunes than last year, a KPMG survey shows. More execs also want people back in the office.
Last year, 95% of CEOs said they were confident about their own company’s growth prospects. This year, it's 79%. Still high, but a big drop.
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What do these high Treasury yields mean for the economy?

Oct 3, 2023
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached a 16-year high Tuesday. That benchmark rate lifts interest rates on other loans.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is only part of the equation. Supply and demand for loans also influences yields.
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As student loan payments restart, borrowers feel the pinch. The economy might too.

Oct 2, 2023
Obligations resuming after three years could be a rude awakening for some. But by itself, it's not likely to start a recession, experts say.
The return of student loan obligations probably won’t tip us into a recession, but millions of Americans will feel the financial pinch, said Shannon Seery of Wells Fargo.
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