Coronavirus cases are surging in many parts of the country. Florida, South Carolina, Texas and Arizona are logging record numbers of cases. Those are some of the states that imposed the fewest restrictions on residents earlier in the pandemic — and opened up the most over the past couple of weeks.
Now that Texas and Florida have ordered some bars and restaurants to close down again, what does current epidemiology say about how to reopen without fanning the flames of the pandemic?
The Trump administration’s messaging about COVID-19 prevention measures hasn’t been clear or consistent.
But, with cases surging nationwide, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar sent a clear signal Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
“We need to social distance,” Azar said. “We need to wear our face coverings if we’re in settings where we can’t social distance, particularly in these hot zones.”
These hot zones are concentrated in the southern and southwestern states, where restaurants, bowling alleys and salons have started to welcome customers, and people have headed indoors for the air conditioning.
That’s a perfect environment for COVID-19, said Johns Hopkins epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers.
“As we all speak and cough and sing, we produce droplets, and those droplets are how other people can get infected,” Rivers said. She added that people need to reduce that “droplet-sharing” with hand washing, distancing and mask wearing, in addition to avoiding being indoors with other people who aren’t in their household. Rivers said states where COVID-19 is surging again should look at pausing.
“[They should] not continue to reopen more and more activities, but first try to get that level of transmission back down to make sure we don’t reach a point where health care systems are becoming overwhelmed,” Rivers said.
More testing is key to broader reopening, according to University of Minnesota epidemiologist Ryan Demmer.
“If we can scale up and test more frequently, we’ll have a better ability to pull people out while they’re infectious, and the rest of the economy can continue to move forward at much lower risk of outbreaks and hot spots,” Demmer said.
And just because a state has reopened and officials say it’s safe to go out and shop again doesn’t make it any more likely consumers will do that.
John Leer at Morning Consult said hard numbers are driving consumer confidence — COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths.
“That means that consumers can sort of see through some of the politics, and their eye is on the underlying health situation in their region or across the country,” Leer said.
He points out that since mid-June, when COVID-19 cases started surging, consumer confidence has started falling again.
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