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Too many clunkers, not enough cash

Wrecked cars are piled up on a scrapyard

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TEXT OF INTERVIEW

TESS VIGELAND: So you were planning to head out to the auto dealership this weekend. Looking for a little government-sponsored trade for that gas guzzler in the driveway. Then you heard that Cash for Clunkers was so popular that they had to suspend it.

Scratch that. Go buy your car. They'll find a way to pay for it. Really! That's pretty much where we are. On Friday, the House allotted more money and the Senate will vote next week. Meantime, Uncle Sam is urging you to keep those clunkers comin'. If for no other reason that to give the government bragging rights to a program that works.

Our good friend Phil Reed of Edmunds.com is here with the latest. Hi Phil.

Phil Reed: Hi Tess.

Vigeland: You been a little busy the last 48 hours?

Reed: It's been a wild ride. Nobody could've predicted that this would happen, I don't think.

Vigeland: Well obviously nobody predicted this would happen. This thing is basically less than a week old. You do the math on a $1 billion program with $4,500 rebates and that's something like 250,000 cars traded in already?

Reed: Well yes, that would add up to a billion. But there's probably a lot of deals that are pending. So it's unknown. There could be far more than that already.

Vigeland: Wow. Can you give us an idea of what that means in the industry? Do they ever sell that many cars in a week?

Reed: It's definitely a big spike, in terms of sales. The question is, how long will it last? Now, if it lasts at its current rate, it will put us on track for about, I think it's 12 million or 13 million cars. Now, in the good old days, just a couple of years ago, they used to sell 16 million cars per year. So we're getting back to where that used to be. But if it sort of goes back in the other direction, we'll probably wind up this year selling about 10,000 or 11,000 cars.

Vigeland: What does it tell us about pent up demand for cars in this country?

Reed: I think it sends a clear signal that given a good reason to buy a car, people are ready to take the plunge. And that's, I think, exactly what the program was designed to do. Because in terms of numbers, as you pointed out, it's really not going to solve all of the problems that they have out there, but it shows people, first of all, this is a program that works. And secondly, that there is a pent up demand of people waiting for the right reason to go out and buy a new car.

Vigeland: Well so you say the program works. What are you hearing about the process, both for consumers and for dealerships? Has it been fairly easy?

Reed: The process is definitely not user-friendly. It's probably a little easier for consumers than it is for the dealers. The consumer needs to first of all find out, "Do I qualify?" Once they qualify, they need to find a replacement vehicle. A lot of people think they qualify and they don't, so you have to go to a fueleconomy.gov and make sure you get 18 miles per gallon or less. that's a good starting point.

As far as the dealers go, I was actually in New York this week talking to dealers and they were just deluging us with questions about the mechanics of the program. Many of them are very detailed and they pertain towards the titling and the insurance of the cars, but there's also a lot of unknown questions about how to dispose of the trade-ins. The car has to be basically rendered inoperable. But then once you do that, how do you salvage the car and who gets the money from that? So there's lots and lots of questions.

Vigeland: You know, I joked about this a little earlier, wondering if junkyards were ready for this.

Reed: Everybody's been watching this coming and people that are going to profit from it, in terms of money, have been trying to arm themselves and be prepared. And clearly, deals are going through. In other words, I mean, they've almost used up the money, so some people have navigated a very, sort of labyrinthine process. Meanwhile a lot of people are very vocal with questions.

Vigeland: This was meant not only to help jump start the auto industry, but also to get more fuel efficient cars on the road. Is there any sense yet of what consumers are buying when they trade in their clunkers?

Reed: That's a great question and we have been getting reports of inventory levels that are definitely diminishing. And that means that some of the very highly fuel efficient cars -- particularly for example, in the Toyota line-up -- are getting to be hard to find. And that's partly because production levels were cut way back and there's probably going to be less and less to choose from as we go forward.

Vigeland: So, I hate to ask this, but does that potentially mean prices are going to go up?

Reed: Well that's been a huge discussion this week. We've been getting lots of feedback from consumers who were in the middle of a deal when the Cash for Clunkers was approved and funded, they went back, they thought that they had a set price for the vehicle and one consumer reported that the price was suddenly raised $1,100. Other people are saying dealers are telling them flatly, "You have to buy sticker price in order to qualify for this program." So clearly, we felt that the price was going to go up, but a lot of people feel that this is an opportunity for dealers, who were coming hat in hand for any deal previous to this to suddenly begin gouging.

Vigeland: Alright. Phil Reed of Edmunds.com. Thanks for coming in a checking in on the Cash for Clunkers program with this.

Reed: My pleasure. Good talking with you.

John Breaux's picture
John Breaux - Aug 20, 2009

The program is a great idea , but if you want a car and dont have a trade in it does nothing for the less fortunate people . I would like a new vehicle but am not willing to "take the plunge " when there is no incentive for me . Personally I need a new vehicle more than a person who owns a clunker . I have no vehicle. So what good has this program that I as a tax payer am paying for do for me? I can qualify in an instant for a new car loan but why would I if a person next to me gets 4500 for a 500 dollar car and I get nothing? The program shopuld have rewarded people for buying cars with better than average mileage ratings . If you feel this way or have something to add , please respond .

Jim Carroll's picture
Jim Carroll - Aug 5, 2009

Remember that all these clunkers were inherited from the previous administration.

j henry's picture
j henry - Aug 3, 2009

so if you have two or more clunkers at your house you cannot trade both of them for one car. The program is for one per
person.

Jhenry
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www.cashforclunkersfacts.info
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shane algarin's picture
shane algarin - Aug 2, 2009

Drive a vehicle that gets under 18 mpg? Well trade it in for a new vehicle that gets as little as 20 mpg and the government will pitch in up to $4500. Never mind that our kids are picking up the tab. Never mind that students in college have rigged the Toyota Prius to get 170 mpg - 3 times as much as Toyota has. Never mind that a California based company puts out a sporty, high performance race car that goes 300 miles on a charge without 1 drop of gasoline.

Our Congress chooses instead to reward incompetence with a scam called "car allowance rebate" that appears to be boosting business, but is really creating another bubble. Why did we bail out GM? To save jobs? NONSENSE! GM is still going through massive layoffs! Why didn't congress choose to invest in the car company putting out next generation cars? That's were the potential for massive job creation is! This is not politicians showing they can compromise. They're showing us they're corrupt or just incompetent.

jim henry's picture
jim henry - Aug 1, 2009

That is correct, Only purchase or lease of new vehicles qualify

Henry
Blogger
www.cashforclunkersfacts.info
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