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Tax reform for growth and fairness

Glenn Hubbard, dean of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University.

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Kai Ryssdal: Once Congress gets back to work after Labor Day, there's going to be a whole lot of back and forth about the Bush tax cuts. Whether to extend them or let them expire as scheduled at the end of the year. There were, actually, two sets of tax cuts. 2001, which affected mostly individual income taxes and are what most people think of when they think of the Bush tax cuts. There was another set, though, in 2003.

Commentator Glenn Hubbard says we ought to extend them, too.


Glenn Hubbard: >Treasury Secretary Geithner is leading the charge to reduce the 2003 Bush tax cuts. This would increase tax rates on capital gains, and could raise the top tax rate on dividends from 15 percent to nearly 40 percent. And that would adversely affect stock prices, investment and the recovery.

In fact, low or zero taxes on dividends and capital gains promote saving and investment. More investment means more plants and equipment. And that raises workers productivity and wages. It's like this: The 2003 tax cut increased the absolute size of worker's share of the economic pie by making the entire pie bigger.

These points aren't in dispute. Still, the administration makes two other arguments for raising the taxes: They say the tax increases are necessary to reduce the yawning federal budget deficit and they also say they're necessary to promote fairness.

Now, I agree that deficit reduction is an essential goal. But is it the Treasury's view that raising dividend and capital gains taxes will promote needed growth and revenue? Reducing our present spending binge would seem a better path for growth-promoting deficit reduction.

And what about fairness? If the administration wants to place its view of fairness -- higher taxes on households earning more than $250,000 -- ahead of growth and job creation, that's a legitimate political choice. But if fairness is the goal, why not raise more revenue from higher-income taxpayers with less harm to investment and employment? Proposals to limit deductions for such taxpayers would be a clear alternative.

We need a serious discussion of tax policy and tax reform to promote growth and fairness. That is the discussion Secretary Geithner should be leading.

Ryssdal: Glenn Hubbard is dean of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University. Back in the day, he ran the Council of Economic Advisors for President George W. Bush. Back for his regular appearance next week in this space, Robert Reich. Your thoughts are always welcome. Online works best.

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michael pettengill's picture
michael pettengill - Aug 30, 2010

In 1993, Clinton and a Democratic Congress hiked taxes; in the next 7 years or so, more than 20 million jobs were added to the economy.

In 2001, Bush started signing tax cuts passed by a Republican Congress, the same Republican Congress that had been fighting with Clinton, trying to cut taxes. In the next 8 years, Bush signed 7 tax cuts, some temporary, others just speeding up the tax cut phase ins, all in an attempt to create jobs. At its best, the best the Bush tax cuts could deliver was 7 million jobs in 7 years.

And thanks to the tax cuts that rewarded pump and dump asset inflation bubbles, those 7 million jobs were soon gone in the 18 months after 2008.

I find it amazing that the failed Bush tax cuts are used to justify trying again with tax cuts to create jobs.

Tax cuts failed in 1981 and 1982.
Tax cuts failed in 2001 to 2004.

Funny the multiple tax cuts after 1983 were accompanied by job creation.

Funny how jobs were created after the 1993 tax hikes on top of the 1990 tax hikes.

Where is the evidence for tax cuts creating jobs?

Where is the evidence tax hikes prevent robust job creation?

Edward Dodson's picture
Edward Dodson - Aug 29, 2010

The history of how we came to the current system by which government raises its revenue is long and filled with intrigue and an ongoing corruption of the public interest for private privilege. Sadly, economics as a discipline has served privilege and continues to do so. What too many economists have to say about tax policy seems to be ideologically-driven rather than based on sound scientific analysis. This is blatently the case with economists who work within the political parties or in the think tanks funded by ideological groups (e.g., so-called liberal, conservative, libertarian, progressive, etc.).

The last time a serious effort was made to build a non-ideological constituency to eliminate privilege from public revenue systems occured at the end of the 19th century, when a newspaper editor named Henry George took on the establishment positions in his famous book, 'Progress and Poverty'. George's perspectives were not really new; others, including Adam Smith, Francois Quesnay and Thomas Paine, had written similarly. But, George's questions about how government ought to be paid for found a global audience, and, for a time, seemed on the verge of achieving deep systemic reforms. Essentially, Henry George told people everywhere that public goods and services could be paid for not by taxation at all but by collecting what political economists described as "rent" (i.e., that portion of wealth produced by labor and capital associated with the natural advantages of some locations over others).

A handful of economists I have come to know and admire have embraced the perspective made popular by Henry George. But, theirs are voices in the wilderness, obscured by the discord that passes for debate over economic policy in this and other countries.

Slavko Kostov's picture
Slavko Kostov - Aug 25, 2010

I think that the recessions are not as a result of millionaires or billionaires being unable to invest in the economy, but as a result of many poor people being unable to buy what is produced. So the rich people should be taxed very heavily and this money should be given to the poorest, so the products that are produced will be purchased right way, and the economy will start working again. And this should go for the whole world.

David Zapen's picture
David Zapen - Aug 21, 2010

Am I the only listener who remembers that the $250,000-and-up earners are only 5% of the American people? What percentage of listeners is that, 10%? What percentage of these high-earners pay 35% in income tax instead of 15% in capital gains tax? Has anyone fact-checked Hubbard and compared his reliability against Reich? I should have sent this days ago.
Forget rolling back the Reagan tax cuts to 70% like www.thomhartmann.com says; the current $3T wars and the Trump-opposed $2T tax cuts of 2001 require the Truman/Eisenhower 90% income tax rates that paid off WWII and the Korean War. If that means less than 1% of the U.S. have a new maximum wage of $10M/year, consider it the counterpart of Dick Cheney's 1% Doctrine; that's a stimulus to fund the human and physical infrastructure that has crumbled since 1980's October Surprise.
Senator Bernie Sanders (VT-I) says the estate tax only affects 0.3% of Americans, not one farmer or small business. P.S. www.shadowstats.com tracks real un- and underemployment at 21%, not 9.5% or 16.5% like www.bls.gov

Ken Schulz's picture
Ken Schulz - Aug 21, 2010

This struck me as oddly phrased: "The 2003 tax cut increased the absolute size of worker's share of the economic pie by making the entire pie bigger." What is the absolute size of a share? Isn't a 'share' an inherently relative, not absolute measure? Well, the unusual expression is meant to obscure the fact that by 2006, the wage- and salary-earning employees' slice of the GDP pie was smaller than ever recorded. And the slice called 'profit' bigger than ever: http://www.cbpp.org/files/8-31-06inc.pdf http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/08/28/business/28wages_chart.html And after that, of course, eight million (former) working people got no pie at all...

Sam Mandke's picture
Sam Mandke - Aug 20, 2010

I believe it was Einstein who said, "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome."

Donna Williams's picture
Donna Williams - Aug 19, 2010

I was going to weigh in on the obvious bias of Mr. Hubbard whose non-enlightening commentary I have heard before on public radio and read him at this blog on several occasions, but am so relieved to see that others are compelled to chime in about his nonsense. I think them profusely. And the commenter who was bemoaning that there was no counter to Robert Reich must not be paying attention, or listening to Marketplace very much. I find Marketplace to be actually tilting right. Reich is the lone left commenter that I can think of.

David Shardell's picture
David Shardell - Aug 19, 2010

I love the comments here. I'm glad I'm not the only who realizes that people trading stocks doesn't provide capital investment to companies. They get their money at the IPO and of course the value of their retained stock impacts their ability to fund operations and borrow, but that's driven by their performance, not by whether people have more of an incentive to buy the stocks. The whole basis for giving capital gains and dividends special treatment has been a lie whose only purpose was to enrich people who don't actually produce anything but campaign donations.

Jared Van Leeuwen's picture
Jared Van Leeuwen - Aug 19, 2010

While I'm all for open free market capitalism, I must disagree with the this article. The arguments are persuasive when companies have opportunity and are strapped for cash, and the price of a share is relative to the dividend. Neither of these are true right now. So many of the big companies (including banks) have tons of cash. They just don't know what to do about it right now. Plus the price of so many shares of stock are way over inflated past the returns one will get from the dividends. I don't like treating dividends as a special type of income. It should taxed just like regular income. That makes the taxed code simpler and it's just.

James Hansen's picture
James Hansen - Aug 19, 2010

"...low or zero taxes on dividends and capital gains promote saving and investment. More investment means more plants and equipment. And that raises workers productivity and wages."

Surely Hubbard can't still believe this old saw. Does he really think more plant & equipment is needed and will be built in the U.S? How about using the taxes collected to educate the workforce? Still doesn't answer the question: How does the U.S. compete in the Clinton's global world when better educated workforces in India, China etc. will do the same high-level work at a fraction of the cost?

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