Bad news for the job market could be good news for inflation

Jun 13, 2024
Initial jobless claims hit a 10-month high last week. If that takes pressure off prices, the Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates.
Higher unemployment can contribute to the cooling of inflation, but it comes at the expense of people's livelihoods.
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Recent college grads see rise in unemployment

Apr 23, 2024
Unemployment jumped from 8.6% to 12.3% among 20-somethings with bachelor's degrees year over year, the BLS reported.
"This is the first sign of [the job market] not being as strong as I thought it was," said Patricia Anderson with Dartmouth.
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The consistent unemployment gap between Black and white workers

Unpacking the persistent 2-to-1 unemployment gap between Black and white workers.
"That disparity between Black and white workers is something that remains really a defining feature, unfortunately, of the U.S labor market," said  Valerie Wilson of the Economic Policy Institute’s Program on Race, Ethnicity and the Economy.
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Black unemployment seems to be rising. But other indicators of Black employment are strong.

Apr 8, 2024
It's possible that higher unemployment means more Black workers are coming back into the labor market.
The recent Black unemployment rate uptick is worth watching, said economist Elise Gould. But, she points out that it's still quite low by any historical measure.
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What's the best way to predict where the economy is headed?

Jul 20, 2023
Some question the predictive powers of the The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, a past predictor of recessions.
While investors may be closely watching The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, economists caution it may not be as predictive as it once was.
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What the Fed wants to see in the next jobs report

Jul 4, 2023
To not be so stubbornly good? "We still see the labor market running very hot,” one economist says.
Fed policymakers use data from household surveys, financial markets, professional forecasters and the labor market to set interest rates, says Rice University economist Zach Bethune.
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Three years after the pandemic recession, signing up for unemployment still isn't easy

Jun 26, 2023
States are upgrading IT and accessibility to unemployment insurance, but it's a long hard road.
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For public good, not for profit.

Is the U.S. economy really a tale of two job markets?

The "dual labor market" theory paints a picture of two very different job markets in terms of stability, pay, and mobility.
The unemployment rate is at a half-century low, yet many workers are unable to escape poorly paid, precarious jobs. One reason could be that the U.S. job market has evolved into two distinct labor markets—a dual labor market--and workers in each section experience very different economies.
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Fading job prospects discourage younger Chinese workers

May 17, 2023
China's job market remains competitive as the economy recovers from zero-COVID. But some young people have lost their eagerness to compete.
Students at a job fair in Beijing last year. Unemployment among graduates has remained stubbornly high even though China has dismantled its zero-COVID policy.
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Jobless claims are up, but unemployment is still low. What does that mean?

May 11, 2023
The four-week moving average of unemployment benefits claims is at the highest level since late 2021. Is this more evidence of a slowly cooling economy?
The four-week moving average of unemployment insurance claims is the highest it’s been since late 2021.
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