Consumers expect to spend as much or more this holiday season

When you have six kids, someone always needs a new something.

“It’s expensive,” said Julie Yang, who lives with her husband and family in Minnesota, and spent about $800 on school supplies and clothes this fall. “I was like oh my god, I can’t believe how much we’re spending on back to school stuff because Asher is growing constantly and then Isla’s sprouting like crazy, too.”

Harvey, who’s seven years old, gets a lot of hand-me-downs, which helps because everything is more expensive these days. Filling up the family van costs $100 alone. So this year, they’re going to stick to a budget for Christmas. Actually, rumor has it Old Saint Nick is dealing with inflation, too.

“Uh, mom and dad and Santa Claus talked about it,” Yang said. “We’re just going to do either one really big thing, or we’re just going to do a lot of little small stuff.”

Most families begrudgingly plan to spend as much or more than usual on the holidays this year, according to the consulting firm Accenture, which has been surveying thousands of Americans for 20 years now.

Yet that spending is not enough to make companies feel confident, because a lot of the increase is inflation. In other words, real spending may be flat.

Kelly Askew, global retail lead for Accenture, said shoppers are anxious about their budgets but realistic about prices.

“It doesn’t mean that when December rolls around and I’m out in a mall and I’m feeling festive I’m not going to pull out my credit card for one more purchase,” he said.

So, shoppers are trying to plan ahead and spread out the financial pain. 20% started tackling their holiday lists before August. 90% will start before Black Friday.

“They’re becoming more thoughtful about what they buy, they’re searching for value,” Askew said. “And they’re making deliberate tradeoffs.”

Early shopping is music to any retailer’s ears. It’s easier to manage inventory, and a longer shopping season could coax consumers into spending more overall.

“And so discounts have begun,” said Simeon Siegel, consumer equity research analyst at Guggenheim Securities. “They likely will increase in force the closer we get to holiday.”

Amazon, Walmart, and Target are already rolling out sales. And Siegel thinks retailers will have to offer deeper discounts throughout the season than in recent years.

“I think this year, the only way to get revenue, the only way to protect sales, is to have more discounts, is to get people to buy more things,” he said.

Yang wants the holidays to be magical, so the family is making some compromises in other spending categories.

“We’ve decided we’re not going to just grab whatever snacks our kids see — we’ve been limiting that more,” she said. “We stopped doing Muay Thai and swimming class.”

That’s about $350 a month saved — or earmarked for the holidays.