War in the Middle East threatens air cargo routes

Shipping companies have rerouted ocean freight away from the Red Sea to avoid military strikes in the ongoing U.S. and Israel war with Iran. Air cargo may be next.

Although most of the cargo that moves around the world travels by ocean freight, a growing volume of goods now travels via plane. Air cargo demand reached a new record in 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Thirteen percent of all air freight passes through the Gulf, said Brandon Fried, executive director of the Airforwarders Association. Most of the goods traveling through the Middle East are there for a layover — a pit stop to refuel on the way to Europe from Asia.

“A lot of it transfers through that area because the Gulf carriers, the Middle East carriers, have tremendously significant air cargo programs,” he said.

The region has tremendously significant commercial flight programs. About half of the goods that travel by air fly under the belly of commercial flights, and the other half goes on dedicated air cargo planes.

Usually companies that make goods that are expensive or expire quickly will pick air over sea — pharmaceuticals, electronics, fresh cut flowers.

“So it’s much easier. It’s a lot shorter transit time. Granted the cost is more significant,” Fried said.

Shipping by air costs anywhere from five to 10 times the amount of shipping by water, he said. Still, companies have become increasingly willing to cough up the extra cash.

Martin Dresner, a professor of supply chain management at the University of Maryland, said one reason has been fear about global conflicts.

“There’s issues in transiting through the Suez Canal because of hostilities with the rebel groups in Yemen. Previous to that there’s been pirates,” he said.

If conflict happens, it’s much easier and less time intensive to reroute cargo in the air than it is to force a ship the long way around Africa.

Plus, Dresner said, it’s a safer option than ocean shipping.

But no method is perfect. Limited air space means limited cargo capacity. And Brian Bourke, chief commercial officer at Seko Logistics, said carriers are already dealing with messy routes.

“The war in Ukraine has effectively shut off Russian airspace and so the same flights that now fly have to fly a longer route,” he said.

There is a limit to how many planes can occupy any given route each day, and carriers will demand higher rates.

“Because essentially it becomes like surge pricing,” he said.

Add longer hours for pilots and extra jet fuel, and you get higher shipping bills for businesses everywhere.