Xerox announced Tuesday that it’s canceling its hostile takeover bid for HP, a deal that was five months in the making. The macroeconomic environment we’re in, Xerox said, is not conducive to the takeover any longer. That macroeconomic environment has placed a giant roadblock in front of corporate dealmaking around the world.
Mergers and acquisitions are bold and risky bets in the long-run. If you’re a CEO thinking about making such a deal, you want to be pretty confident about what the future holds, said Drew Pascarella, associate dean for MBA programs at Cornell’s business school.
“Everyone’s crystal ball on a good day is reasonably cloudy,” Pascarella said. “Today, with COVID, you just can’t see through it.”
And with stocks swinging up and down all the time now, it’s hard to figure out what a company is worth. Then there’s the question of getting financing for a deal, said Anil Shivdasani, professor of finance at the University of North Carolina.
“Banks are looking at what’s happening in the economy and are becoming much more cautious in making their lending decisions,” he said.
Global deal-making dropped 28% in the first quarter, according to Refinitiv Deals Intelligence. It’s down over 50% in the U.S.
But deals aren’t necessarily dead. Steven Davidoff Solomon, professor of law at UC Berkeley, said private equity firms and big corporations are sitting on a lot of cash right now — cash that could be used to pick up a distressed company.
“They are all circling right now, and they are going to come in to pick up the pieces,” he said.
Still, he says that’s not likely to happen for at least a few months. Most companies are reluctant to spend cash while the economy’s outlook is so uncertain.
“If you’re a CEO looking at the world right now, you’re not going to take the risk of an acquisition unless it’s incredibly opportunistic,” Solomon said, adding that if dealmaking picks up again, it’d be a sign that the economy is getting healthier.
COVID-19 Economy FAQs
How many people are flying? Has traveled picked up?
Flying is starting to recover to levels the airline industry hasn’t seen in months. The Transportation Security Administration announced on Oct. 19 that it’s screened more than 1 million passengers on a single day — its highest number since March 17. The TSA also screened more than 6 million passengers last week, its highest weekly volume since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. While travel is improving, the TSA announcement comes amid warnings that the U.S. is in the third wave of the coronavirus. There are now more than 8 million cases in the country, with more than 219,000 deaths.
How are Americans feeling about their finances?
Nearly half of all Americans would have trouble paying for an unexpected $250 bill and a third of Americans have less income than before the pandemic, according to the latest results of our Marketplace-Edison Poll. Also, 6 in 10 Americans think that race has at least some impact on an individual’s long-term financial situation, but Black respondents are much more likely to think that race has a big impact on a person’s long-term financial situation than white or Hispanic/Latinx respondents.
Find the rest of the poll results here, which cover how Americans have been faring financially about six months into the pandemic, race and equity within the workplace and some of the key issues Trump and Biden supporters are concerned about.
What’s going to happen to retailers, especially with the holiday shopping season approaching?
A report out recently from the accounting consultancy BDO USA said 29 big retailers filed for bankruptcy protection through August. And if bankruptcies continue at that pace, the number could rival the bankruptcies of 2010, after the Great Recession. For retailers, the last three months of this year will be even more critical than usual for their survival as they look for some hope around the holidays.
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