Download
HTML Embed
HTML EMBED
Click to Copy
Marketplace Morning Report

Photoshop turns 30

Feb 19, 2020

Latest Episodes

Download
HTML Embed
HTML EMBED
Click to Copy
Marketplace Morning Report
Download
HTML Embed
HTML EMBED
Click to Copy
Marketplace Morning Report
Download
HTML Embed
HTML EMBED
Click to Copy
Download
HTML Embed
HTML EMBED
Click to Copy
Make Me Smart with Kai and Molly
Download
HTML Embed
HTML EMBED
Click to Copy
Download
HTML Embed
HTML EMBED
Click to Copy
Marketplace Morning Report
Download
HTML Embed
HTML EMBED
Click to Copy
Marketplace Morning Report
Download
HTML Embed
HTML EMBED
Click to Copy
Marketplace Morning Report
Download
HTML Embed
HTML EMBED
Click to Copy
Download
HTML Embed
HTML EMBED
Click to Copy
Sign up for "Econ Extra Credit with David Brancaccio" Here
Attitude Check

Americans split on who they think will win the election

Marketplace Contributor Aug 30, 2012
Share Now on:
HTML EMBED:
COPY
Attitude Check

Americans split on who they think will win the election

Marketplace Contributor Aug 30, 2012
Share Now on:
HTML EMBED:
COPY

Kai Ryssdal: Politicians can talk and pontificate and speechify all they want, but once all’s said and done, voters are the one’s who have to figure out what they really think.

Frank Newport is the editor-in-chief at Gallup, where what they do is ask Americans what they think about things. He’s back to give us a little Attitude Check. Frank, good to talk to you.

Frank Newport: Good to be with you, Kai.

Ryssdal: You guys just had some numbers about who Americans think is going to win. Give me those numbers, and then I have a question for you.

Newport: All right. Fifty-eight percent of Americans think that Barack Obama will be elected president on Nov. 6; 36 percent say it’ll be Mitt Romney. Those data come from the exact same people who when you ask, ‘Who are you going to vote for personally?’ are split right down the middle.

Ryssdal: Oh is that right?

Newport: Yeah.

Ryssdal: That’s crazy.

Newport: So the ballot itself, when you ask American voters who are you going to vote for, it’s split. But when you say, ‘All right, tell us who’s going to win in your heart of hearts?” It tilts significantly towards Obama. And a lot of it is caused by Romney voters who say ‘I’m voting for Romney but if you really press me, I think Obama’s going to win.’

Ryssdal: OK, now: How much of what happens in presidential elections is a self-fulfilling prophecy based on that split of who people think is going to win, if you take my meaning?

Newport: Yeah, oh absolutely. You put your finger on something that’s called the bandwagon effect, which some people have argued there is a momentum or an inevitability created by somebody who people think is going to win. Hard to prove that. There’s also the theory, Kai, that there’s an anti-bandwagon effect, so that if people think they’re behind, they’re going to work even harder. That would be Romney’s supporters in this situation.

Ryssdal: Another thing that’s come up in this election of course, Frank, is who’s better on the economy: Gov. Romney wins that one fairly handily. But President Obama has the likeability factor going for him; polls much stronger than the governor does on that one. Is either of those predictive?

Newport: They’re both predictive, and they both kind of describe the election. How both gentlemen should play this out is a fascinating question. My view is that probably we all do better playing off our strengths, and that would be for Mitt Romney rather than trying to be likeable suddenly, in his speech hammering home the economy and why he thinks he can do a better job than Barack Obama.

Ryssdal: And then the president next week, does he give a likeability speech?

Newport: Well you know, that’s his strength, so literally he just has to be himself, because he’s been himself over the last four years. And the one thing we see in the data is Barack Obama is substantially more likeable based on what voters tell us than his opponent Mitt Romney.

Ryssdal: Frank Newport, he is the editor-in-chief at Gallup. Frank, thanks a lot.

Newport: My pleasure.

If you’re a member of your local public radio station, we thank you — because your support helps those stations keep programs like Marketplace on the air.  But for Marketplace to continue to grow, we need additional investment from those who care most about what we do: superfans like you.

Your donation — as little as $5 — helps us create more content that matters to you and your community, and to reach more people where they are – whether that’s radio, podcasts or online.

When you contribute directly to Marketplace, you become a partner in that mission: someone who understands that when we all get smarter, everybody wins.