Home builder confidence up too high?

Allan Sloan is a senior editor-at-large at Fortune

About the author

Steve Chiotakis was the host of Marketplace Morning Report until January 2012.
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Regret that Allen has bought into the Real Estate term "Home," when really describing a "House." Pieces of owned property are not "homes!" Would he really suggest that those who occupy apartments do not have a home?

Re: Winners and losers. Allen's perception of winners and losers presupposes that 2006 prices reflected underlying value and therefore, current prices represent a discount. If one considers 2006 prices to be inflated, then current prices may not yet be reflective of underlying value (depends what underlying value is and, thus whether we have fully corrected). In this scenario, current sellers are the big winners because they still capture outsized profits, though not as much as if they had sold in 2006. Current buyers are the losers, because they pay more than they might next year. It is all a matter of perspective colored by your impression of what has happened and what is going to happen. Personally, I don't see how anyone looking at a graph of S&P Case Shiller index can think that 2006 prices were reasonable and current prices are a discount.

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