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If inflation is zero, why does my paycheck feel like it's shrinking?

According to the current Consumer Price Index, the inflation rate is zero percent. But for many people, their cost of living doesn't reflect the data's averages.

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Last week we mourned the death of inflation in an obituary, and some of you wrote in to say you saw inflation in your town. There are even rumors that inflation was seen riding shotgun in a white Cadillac driven by Elvis.

One of the comments we got was from Dennis Sedam in Walla Walla, Wash. He had this to say: “Anybody who thinks inflation is dead is living in a dream world and are certainly not living on a fixed income as I am. Someone needs to change the definition of inflation or the criteria for determining it because, believe me, inflation is alive and very well.”

So how can inflation be at zero percent when so many of us feel like our paychecks don’t go as far as they used to?

Mark Thoma is a professor of economics at the University of Oregon. When I told him about the comments from people who said  inflation is real for them, he said, “they’re probably right.”

Thoma points out that that some people’s individual inflation rate is not zero. The zero percent rate that was released last week is an average based on the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. The CPI is made up of thousands of different goods and services. But not everyone buys the same goods and services.

For example, take retiree Dennis Sedam. He was born in 1944, so he probably spends a larger percentage of his income on health care than the average person.

“Health care is very expensive,” says Thoma. “It’s rising way faster than the regular rate of inflation.”

So elderly people are going to have a personal rate of inflation that is higher than the national average. And even if you aren’t buying a lot of health care, everything you purchase affects your inflation rate.

Take, for instance, a gallon of milk -- one of the thousands of items in the CPI. That gallon of milk may not cost the same in Wisconsin as it does in Walla Walla. And for people who buy lot of milk where it’s expensive, “they will have a personal inflation rate that is not only those goods but local prices that they pay based on their suppliers,” says Pete Klenow, a professor of economics at Stanford.

In other words, just because inflation is at zero doesn’t mean the price of everything has stayed the same. It just means that for the things that have gone up in price, other items in the CPI have gone down to counterbalance the average.

And this doesn’t take into account wages. On average, wages do increase over time. But for many people, especially low-skilled workers and people on fixed incomes, their inflation rate feels very real and very much alive.

About the author

David Weinberg is a reporter on Marketplace's Sustainability Desk.
jlw61's picture
jlw61 - Mar 1, 2013

What a lovely fluff piece which simply reiterates the party line. The CPI is a contrived figure which, among other things, REMOVES FOOD AND ENERGY from the inflation calculations. So milk can go up 1000% and it will not affect the CPI.

It's sad to see evey media outlet becoming either a conservative or liberal apologists. No wonder we're in such trouble.

Digmen1's picture
Digmen1 - Feb 28, 2013

I always thought that inflation was an increase in money supply.

You seem to be talking about rises in the cost of living

grlampton's picture
grlampton - Feb 27, 2013

The reason your paycheck feels like it is getting smaller is because it IS getting smaller.

The government statistics on inflation are completely bogus. For a more accurate read on inflation, go to www.shadowstats.com, where you will see that the true rate of inflation, using 1980 methodology, is close to 10 percent (and unemployment is over 20 percent).

Noni Mausa's picture
Noni Mausa - Feb 26, 2013

Another element of hidden inflation for pensioners is that their pension plans are earning rock bottom levels of interest. To say nothing of the decades of pension payments workers paid out, only to see their businesses wiggle out from under the deal and shove the costs (but not their profits) over onto relatives, children, and the federal pension benefits insurance plan. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pension_Benefit_Guaranty_Corporation

There ought to be perhaps six measures of inflation published, along with the overall rate. My guess is that for the lowest 20%, single parents, elderly and the working poor, the annual inflation rate is around 3-4%.

Noni

cmih's picture
cmih - Feb 25, 2013

Marketplace.org employees are obviously well-paid and insulated from the real world or else they wouldn't have needed a listener to call and tell them that inflation is alive and well.

objectivity's picture
objectivity - Feb 25, 2013

Did you guys really just burn a segment proving someone's personal inflation rate might be different than the national average? Wow - please try to give Mr. Weinberg more challenging/thought-provoking assignments.