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An inverted yield curve usually signals recession. Is it wrong this time?

Sep 7, 2023
For well over a year, the interest paid by long-term Treasury bonds has been lower than that of shorter-term debt. But a recession hasn't happened yet.
When the yield curve inverts, it indicates that bond investors are betting on a coming recession.
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The bond market yield curve is inverted — which some economists think foreshadows a downturn

Mar 2, 2023
The yield for a two-year note is roughly a whole percentage point higher than the yield on the 10-year Treasury right now. And that often precedes a recession.
A 10-year bond theoretically locks up your money for 10 years in exchange for some yield or other. But its worth depends on the what the future looks like with inflation, interest rates and the economy.
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Why this yield curve inversion could be different

Aug 14, 2019
This time around, it may not be telling us that a recession's on the way.
Investors, spooked by economic fears, dumped stocks on Wednesday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 800 points. Above, the New York Stock Exchange.
Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Treasury yields invert, warning of possible recession

Aug 14, 2019
It's a market phenomenon that shows investors want more for short-term government bonds than they do for long-term bonds.
Traders and financial professionals work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at the opening bell on August 13, 2019 in New York City.
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When the yield curve inverts, how nervous should we be?

May 29, 2019
Historically, an inverted yield curve has spelled recession.
The New York Stock Exchange on a rainy day in New York City last week.
Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images