And that's if vaccine distribution stays on track, David Malpass says.
As central bankers around the world meet to close out the year, some face stronger economic headwinds than others.
OECD chief economist Laurence Boone says governments must double down on providing support to avoid "scarring effects."
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Congress “may need to do more” to cushion the blow from the pandemic.
What does that longer timeline mean for the global economy?
"If people don't have money in their pockets, then this type of economy that we have can't work," says Wharton professor Mauro Guillén.
The U.S. health crisis isn't just depressing the national economy. The global economy could feel it, too.
That means fewer jobs and more debt. And the U.S. may be in for even worse.
The country's coalition-building power overseas has weakened as it focuses on crises at home, researcher Torrey Taussig says.
IMF economists talked to epidemiologists and tried to estimate how much COVID-19 restrictions will affect the economy.