Quits ticked up in September, but economists say it’s still a terrible time to leave your job

“Low-hire, low-fire” is still an accurate description of what’s going in the labor market. Job openings, hires, and separations were all “little changed” in September, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The only thing that did change was the number of people quitting their jobs, which rose slightly. Generally, when more people start quitting their jobs it’s a good thing.

“It signals a labor market that is healthier, where workers have more mobility,” said Angela Hanks, chief of policy programs at the Century Foundation.

She said people tend to quit when they’re confident they can find another job. But one month of data showing more people quitting doesn’t mean all that much.

“And then also, this is sort of in the context of a bunch of other numbers that we get reporting on the strength of the labor market,” Hanks said.

So far, she said, none of those other numbers — on job growth or wage growth — indicate now is a good time to quit your job.

Heidi Shierholz, president of the Economic Policy Institute, said it’s quite the opposite, actually.

“If you have a job, the right thing to do is to hang onto it if you can,” she said. “All the data point to, it’s really, really hard to find a job right now.”

The hiring rate is about where it was in 2012 and 2013. Back then, Shierholz said, the economy was just coming out of the Great Recession and the labor market was very weak.

“That's the kind of world that people who are looking for a job are facing right now. … It's rough,” she said.

It’s been rough for about two years now. Shierholz said she expects Friday’s jobs report will show that’s still the case.

Elizabeth Pancotti, vice president of policy, advocacy, and research at the Groundwork Collaborative, will be looking to see what’s happening in one sector in particular: “Healthcare is really the industry that all eyes are on. It has really carried job growth for the past two years or so,” she said.

The latest JOLTS report shows there are still plenty of openings in healthcare.

“But hires are down by about 13% from last year, and we have seen in the traditional employment report that healthcare is really cooling,” Pancotti said.

With major cuts to Medicaid going into effect early next year, she said it’s a trend that’s likely to continue.