The biggest global risk in 2026? Eurasia Group points to the U.S.

It's a new year, and with it comes fresh ways for the world to be in crisis and for us to feel like we're in an alternate timeline.

You might expect Russia, China-U.S. relations, or even tariffs to feature heavily at the top of the list — but according to the Eurasia Group’s latest annual list of risks to the global economy, there’s a lot to fear over U.S. politics.

“Marketplace Morning Report” host Sabri Ben-Achour spoke with coauthor and Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer about what made the list. The following is an edited transcript of their conversation.

Sabri Ben-Achour: So the No. 1 global risk in 2026 is not the tension between the U.S. and China or Russia. You argue the No. 1 risk is the U.S. itself. Why?

Ian Bremmer: Because the U.S. is the most powerful country in the world, and it is undoing both its role in a global order that it's set up, and it's also challenging its own political system. The level of uncertainty, unpredictability, and — for others around the world — unreliability that that presents is really unprecedented.

Ben-Achour: If the U.S. is recreating a world order not based so much on rules, but just on strength in particular, is that an actual risk or a change?

Bremmer: Well, it's both. Even though the United States is much more powerful than China, Xi Jinping is much less constrained and much more powerful as an executive authority than President Trump is. And so there's a reason why the United States felt for generations that it benefited from setting up and abiding by a lot of these rules, like free trade architecture and collective security and the promotion of democracy and rule of law. The fact that the United States is now unilaterally turning against those things will certainly lead to some short-term wins against, say, Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro or Denmark and Greenland, but in the long term, this is not a strategy for success.

Ben-Achour: President Trump is not a fan of renewables. China, meanwhile, is building a 162-square-mile solar farm — what is the risk there?

Bremmer: When we talk about solar and wind and nuclear, those are 21st-century technologies, the prices of which are coming down exponentially as the technology improves, and, given that, that is what's powering not just the ability to feed your population, but also the commanding heights of artificial intelligence. Long term, this is a big and smart strategic bet for the Chinese that the Americans are not competing with.

Ben-Achour: AI, there's, of course, the risk that we're in a bubble or AI will take our jobs. But that is not quite the risk you see; rather, it's that AI companies under pressure will adopt business models in 2026 that threaten social and political stability. What does that mean?

Bremmer: As you are spending enormous amounts of money on consumer AI and the business model doesn't yet justify it, there's going to be more pressure to commercialize that tech, and when the tech that's being used is trying to maximize engagement with the average American. Essentially, you're going to be testing these AI algorithms real time on the populations of our countries. You wouldn't do that with the vaccine, even during a pandemic. You wouldn't do it with genetically modified food, even though people are starving, and that, I think, is a danger.