My Two Cents

Political economy?

Chris Farrell Sep 18, 2008

The credit crisis is having an impact on the race for the White House. The trading gap between Obama and MCCain had narrowed on the Iowa electronic presidential futures market after the Republican convention. Unlike the polls that placed them about even at the time, investors still gave Obama a slight edge. But the trading gap has widened again. The presidential futures market now gives Obama a 61% chance of winning in Novermber, with McCain down to 39%.

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