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Jobs will outnumber seekers by 2018
Economics editor Chris Farrell
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TEXT OF INTERVIEW
Bill Radke: Even though companies are beginning to hire again, there are still about five times as many people looking for work as there are jobs to fill. But what if I told you that by 2018, there could be more jobs than job seekers? Actually, what if our economics editor Chris Farrell told you that? Good morning, Chris.
Chris Farrell: Good morning, Bill.
Radke: It doesn't sound right, Chris. What's gotten into you?
Farrell: Well, I've been bitten by the demographic bug. Now, baby boomers are getting older. The oldest boomers will start getting Medicare next year.
Radke: Granted, but is that alone, Chris, enough to take us from not enough jobs to too many?
Farrell: Well according to two economists, Barry Bluestone, Mark Melnik and Northeastern University. Now, they use a very simple economic model: the economy is going to recover. And then they assume that older workers will continue to retire at their normal retirement age and we have no major change in immigration policy. And then they take into account that there's a baby bust generation. So there's going to be a gap of about 5 million jobs, 30 [percent] to 40 percent of the jobs that could be created from 2008 to 2018 could go begging.
Radke: Thirty [percent] to 40 percent, does that mean that wages then have to rise enough to lure grandma and grandpa back to work?
Farrell: Oh, you would think so, that'd be the smart thing to do, right? But companies hate paying more. Now, they could also change immigration policy, I don't see that happening. You could do some more offshoring, you know, there are limits to that. No I think what they're going to do is say to grandma and grandpa, we're not going to pay you more, but we're going to change your benefit policy. You know with young parents, we have maternity leave? When you have a grandchild born, we'll give you leave.
Radke: Interesting. Now Chris, I could be wrong here, but I think of younger workers as being the innovators in our economy. Can our economy thrive with an older work force?
Farrell: Our economy can thrive and be even more productive. Look, this isn't a story of no young workers -- we're going to have plenty of young workers and lots of immigrants that are hustling to make a better life for themselves and their children. But older workers have knowledge, they have experience, and they're going to continue to share what they have learned over the years. And that's going to help out as companies navigate business cycles and competition from other nations.
Radke: OK. Our wise, experienced yet dynamic economics editor, Chris Farrell. Thank you, Chris.
Farrell: Thanks a lot, Bill.
These gentlemen should get down in the trenches to see what is the reality. Take a trip across the US and visit some of the towns and cities struggling with unemployment, counted and uncounted. Listen to some of the stories. The reality is the US has been losing jobs since at least the early 1990's. Well paying jobs for at least 30 years. Or take a look at the increase in poverty across the US. These people are not in poverty because there is or has been a ample supply of work. The path and projection remains unchanged. It has worsened in the past three years. Further, the present job shortage may well last passed 2020.
It makes sense to think boomers will retire at age 65 (aka late 2011) because their own parents grew up with 65 being the magic number. I think it's difficult to say whether full retirement will occur; many older workers might be working part time because they need more money.
This story is worthless. This entire fictional story is based on one assumption, that the economy will recover. They are so sure of that. Well what if the economy does NOT recover? What if it recovers in 20-30 years, after we've had another civil war or the country sponters in anarchy? So many economists were so clueless about the catastrophe that is occurring, and that has not reached it's peak yet. Why are people listening to such economists? It will be a long, long time before many of these lost jobs are recovered.
This story is, unfortunately, totally false. This "coming labor shortage" myth has been going around for years. The BLS forecasters have pointed this out : http://www.businessknowhow.com/manage/labor-shortage.htm
In my opinion, it's time to change the work week for "aging workers". Give us the opportunity to work fewer days a week and we'll think about staying in the workforce longer. I'd love to continue working longer but I crave more time for travel, while my spouse and I are "young and fit" enough to enjoy it. I also want more time for regular weekly exercise and volunteer activities. After the chores are done, too often the easy chair wins. I know understand why and how much my father "rested his eyes" in front of TV.
