Grocery inflation has been tame, but that may change

The price of almost everything just keeps going up. We learned that inflation ran hotter than expected in September — 3.7% over the last year.

One kind of bright spot? Grocery prices are only rising at about half the overall rate. That’s been the trend for a while now. But there are signs that high diesel prices are starting to trickle into some of the prices we pay at the checkout.

Even though grocery prices are rising much more slowly than prices in general, William Masters, professor of food policy and economics at Tufts University, said that people aren’t feeling it.

“When most people go to the grocery store, what they're seeing is the hangover from the 2022/23, post-COVID inflation that means the shelf prices remain elevated,” he said.

Groceries are about 30% more expensive now than pre-pandemic, and wages just haven’t kept up.

Plus, David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University, said that everyone experiences food inflation differently.

“You know, if you're not buying eggs, you're not benefiting from these lower egg prices,” he said. Iif you're buying some of the fish and seafood that is up significantly over the past year, that's going to hit you a lot harder.”

Even though overall food inflation is low, he said that certain prices are starting to tick up again — like for some frozen foods, and fresh fruits and vegetables.

“These are products that have to be refrigerated, that are perishable, that have to travel long distances,” he said — all of which requires expensive diesel.