Among all the headlines coming out of Venezuela, there was a bit of tangential news that got some attention; shortly before the U.S. operation in Caracas, a new Polymarket user placed a sizable bet that President Nicolás Maduro would soon be out of office.
The correct prediction got a payout of $436,000, but, with such uncanny timing, it raised some red flags about potential insider trading. Plus, it’s not the only case in recent weeks that has made people sit up and pay attention to who might be placing bets or influencing outcomes.
Joeseph Grundfest is a former SEC commissioner and a retired law professor at Stanford University. He joined “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal to talk about what kinds of laws govern this betting space, and his concern concern level around insider trading on these platforms.
Listen in the player above to hear their conversation.
Correction (April 28, 2026): A previous version of this story misstated the city in which Maduro was captured.
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