On Tuesday, we (finally) got official government data on retail sales for the month of September. The figures, along with plenty of other official data reports, had been delayed as a result of the government shutdown.
Retail sales rose 0.2% from the previous month in September, according to the Census Bureau. It indicates that consumers pumped the brakes on some of their splurge-y spending habits that characterized the summer months.
Another thing the report showed? The continuation of the K-shaped economy.
“The consumer is still out there spending. Unfortunately, there's a little bit more bifurcation in that consumer,” said Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist at New Hampshire-based economics consultancy firm ITR Economics. “We're really seeing the lower end get squeezed, while the middle to upper income bracket is a little bit more comfortable at the moment.”
Also on Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the producer price index report, which can help give an indication of where consumer prices are headed. The PPI increased 0.3% in September; when factoring out food and energy, the PPI increased by 0.1%.
What that shows, according to Saidel-Baker, is that inflation can be sticky and persistent.
What can this mean for consumers as we enter a busy week for holiday shopping?
“Pre-Black Friday, those real early bird shoppers, they have been out in force,” said Saidel-Baker. “However, it goes without saying that higher inflation, these higher prices, that is supporting a lot of the gain. It's not just real volume growth; we're spending more because things simply cost more this year.”