October’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey came out Tuesday morning — more delayed data from the government shutdown — and it showed a mixed picture. The good news is job openings climbed to a five-month high. The not so good news is layoffs are up and people are less likely to change jobs. The voluntary quits rate fell to a five-year low. 

So, here’s some more current data from a slice of the economy: Retail job cuts are up nearly 140% from last year, according to the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Last year, Morningstar analyst David Swartz, toured a new warehouse that cosmetics chain Ulta had recently opened.

“And there was very few people working in there. The people are sort of there to monitor the machines,” he said.

The robots are efficient; they can unload, organize and pack. From self-checkout at stores to artificial intelligence at corporate headquarters, technology saves money, especially considering wages typically make up something like half of retailers’ operating costs. Relying on machines means there’s less seasonal hiring fuss. 

“Even the robot workers can be laid off to some degree when they’re not needed,” Swartz said.

This is the future of retail, said Steve Hochman at Nagarro. “We call it, in fancy terms, the great decoupling,” he said.

Usually in business when revenue grows, hiring grows. There’s more money to invest and expand.

“But this holiday season what we’re seeing is a separation of those two trends,” Hochman said.

Meaning now, even when a retailer’s revenue increases, hiring typically falls. Companies are investing in other areas, like those robots, instead of in their headcount. 

This year especially, brands have leaned hard into automation because of uncertainty in the economy, even though the holidays are the worst time for job cuts.

“For years larger retailers have mostly avoided any form of layoffs during the holiday season for 15 years. Now it’s just bad press,” said John Talbott, a senior lecturer at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business.

Still, Target and Amazon have announced layoffs in the last several months. Talbott said between low consumer sentiment and tariffs, every dollar counts.

“This is an odd year. I definitely think it’s an odd year,” he said.

Talbott said if consumers spend like crazy, it’ll at most slow the trend a tad. Inevitably, the great retail labor reshuffling is here.