It’s inflation week at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, D.C. The consumer price index for April came in Tuesday, and the producer price index will be out Thursday.

Some say the PPI report shows "inflation at the wholesale level," but that's only part of the story. The PPI measures the change in prices that producers here in the U.S. get for their goods and services — which means it includes steel mill products, hayseeds, staffing services and much more.

Thursday’s release will give us our first detailed look at the effects of those tariffs we keep talking about, because the BLS measured prices after the president's initial tariff announcement.

Morning Consult head of economic analysis Deni Koenhemsi was enjoying a cold caffeinated beverage in an aluminum can when we spoke Wednesday morning.

She said the can itself is a good example of how many producers are involved in making many products: “Raw aluminum … and then you can go into, like, aluminum sheets. And then from there, you can go into the aluminum cans,” she said.

These are called “stages of processing.” And Koenhemsi said if aluminum mills in the U.S. paid more to import the metal last month because it was tariffed, then their input costs will have risen — and they might have upped their prices. That would be apparent in Thursday’s PPI.

“In some of the raw commodities, yes, it will probably show up,” she said.

It’ll take a while before aluminum tariffs affect what consumers pay for a can of soda, Koenhemsi said.

There are so many producers involved, and every one of them has to make its own decisions about how much to charge. 

“Do I pass on this cost now or a few months from now? How is my demand environment? Will my consumer accept this price increase? Or will it affect my bottom line?” she explained.

In the long run, higher tariffs will mean that domestic producers raise prices, said George Washington University public policy professor Leah Brooks.

But, she said, some maybe didn’t do it in April because they were still figuring out exactly what was going on. 

“About which tariffs they were, who they applied to … whether we were going to have the extra-big tariffs or not. I guess not? At least not for now, but they might be coming?” she said.

Some U.S. producers rushed to buy imports before they were hit with tariffs, and so they have stockpiles of pre-tariff products.

“But at some point that stockpile is going to run out,” Brooks said.

And when it does, they’re going to charge more.

“Water flows downhill, and I think if businesses are paying higher prices, eventually consumers are going to have to pay higher prices as well,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank.

GW professor Leah Brooks said if she had to bet on the upcoming PPI, she’d bet on it coming in higher. But she wouldn’t bet too much.