April’s consumer price index, out Tuesday morning, came with some surprises. For one, inflation was a bit lower than expected at 2.3% over the last 12 months, though that’s still above the target rate. Second, when you break the CPI down by category, some of the sectors most impacted by tariffs saw a price decline from last month, including apparel and used cars and trucks. (The cost of new vehicles stayed flat.)

Businesses have been preparing for the possibility of tariffs for a long time. Since before they were announced, before President Trump took office, even before he won the election.

“Companies already frontloaded a lot of their purchases, so you’re not going to see the lift in those categories,” said Sucharita Kodali, a retail analyst at Forrester.

She said stocking up is easier in industries like apparel. And some retailers and manufacturers may have even overstocked.

“Companies may have too much that’s going to run out of season pretty soon and they are discounting that merchandise,” she said.

Kodali said the dreaded pricing in from tariffs probably won’t happen until the end of summer, just in time for back to school — sorry, parents.

Meanwhile, Kevin Mixer, an automotive analyst at Gartner, said most carmakers will probably wait to raise prices until they release new models this fall.

“There’s a lot of concern and consternation about consumer confidence,” he said.

Shoppers are worried about making big purchases if a recession is coming. And let’s not forget: It’s still expensive to borrow money. 

Interest rates are still fairly high, Mixer said, so dealerships are offering discounts to offset those rates.

All the policy uncertainty means companies are holding off on hiking prices as long as they possibly can, said Nirupama Rao, an economist at the University of Michigan.

“Firms change prices in large increments. So they’re not going to reflect that higher cost by changing a price from $15 to $16.17,” she said.

Instead of adding another dollar and another dollar and another dollar, they would rather do it in one big lump sum.

“With greater certainty, more of them will tip,” Rao said.

She said we might see some price increases in May’s CPI. Maybe a little more in June. And then eventually, if trade policy solidifies, it’ll be more like a rush where lots of companies will increase prices all at once.