Thursday is supposed to be when the Commerce Department releases its monthly report on retail sales and business inventories. Chances are, however, we’re going to have to wait a little longer for that data, thanks to the government shutdown.

That said, we have seen some evidence from private sector data that supply chains across the U.S. are slowing down. The Logistics Managers’ Index for September fell to its lowest level since March.

September and October are typically the months when Ken Giddon, founder of Rothmans, a men's clothing store in New York, likes to bring in holiday inventory.

“So, much of our business is big purchases, like suits, sport coats, and things like that, so people want to buy those before the season ends,” Giddon said.

But this year, he had a couple of reasons to stock up early. For one, demand has been strong.

“We do deal with a higher-end client because we sell luxury goods, and the higher-end client seems to be less affected by the ups and downs of the economy, especially with the strong stock market,” he said.

The store’s also been trying to get as much product on its shelves as it can ahead of tariffs, Giddon said. “Sometimes, where we might have bought 30 suits from a guy, we bought 300 this year. We’ve been well-positioned for this season.”

Lots of business owners stocked up early this year, but that’s largely over. The Logistics Managers’ Index found that transportation utilization didn’t grow at all last month.

“For the month of September, that is highly unusual,” said Zac Rogers, a professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University who puts together the Logistics Managers’ Index.

Many businesses didn’t need to transport goods last month, Rogers said.

“Essentially, because everything’s already here, there’s nothing to do,” he said. “We’ve pulled everything forward to get ahead of tariffs, and now, stuff is sitting there, and hopefully consumers buy it.”

Rogers also surveys business owners about their future inventory levels. And many of them are nervous about consumer demand.

“When we ask our respondents, ‘Where do we see this going over the next 12 months?’ we see that inventory level predictions are pretty low,” he said.

That’s because businesses also expect their costs to rise, largely because of tariffs. “That cost will have to be passed along, probably to consumers. And because consumers tend to buy less when things cost more, retailers will bring less inventory in.”

Rogers added that this will cause distress throughout supply chains, whether it’s trucking companies, wholesalers, or warehousing companies.

Nick Dyer is a partner at Ocotillo Capital Partners in San Antonio, Texas. It builds warehouses, mostly to serve cross-border trade. It’s had a new project in the planning stage for a few years.

“It’s a 160,000-square-foot building that we have designed, and we could get built within 12 months, if we started soon,” Dyer said.

Problem is, Dyer said the manufacturers that rent space in his warehouses aren’t all that interested in signing leases longer than a year or so.

“Most tenants are not willing to make those long-term commitments right now, like a 3- or a 5- or 10-year lease, because they just don’t know what the future holds,” he said.

So, Dyer said his company is holding off on building, because he doesn’t see long-term demand for warehousing space picking up any time soon.

“Until there’s an indication from the Trump administration that we’re going to settle on something as a country in terms of the tariff relationships with all these foreign trade partners, that uncertainty’s going to be there,” Dyer said.

Dyer said he expects this slowdown to last until at least the summer of 2026.