Corporate earnings have turned up, but can you take it to the bank?
Corporate earnings have turned up, but can you take it to the bank?
The stock markets has been up pretty sharply since the beginning of last week — after the Dow and the S&P 500 went all jittery in midsummer and spent a good part of the last three months falling. One likely reason for the recent rebound is healthy corporate earnings.
We’re now about 80% done with companies in the S&P 500 reporting their third-quarter results. And despite certain headwinds — high interest rates, declining but significant inflation, meh consumer sentiment, wars in Europe and the Middle East — those corporate earnings are doin’ all right.
Earnings season kicked off four weeks ago, and Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial predicted a turnaround after a couple of years of mediocrity. “The worst of the earnings recession is coming to a close,” she said.
She was even more upbeat Tuesday. “Overall earnings surprises for this earnings season has actually been a solid 7.5%,” she said.
That’s above what companies were predicting.
“As far as our report card goes, third quarter will be the first time sales and earnings grow in almost two years,” added Sameer Samana at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “In some ways, we are kind-of maybe, possibly coming out of what’s been termed the earnings recession.”
“Kinda, maybe, possibly” because while third-quarter earnings have been pretty strong, a lot of companies are warning of lower earnings to come.
One worry is that retailers and major brands that have been riding high could be in for tougher times as consumers deal with dwindling savings and high interest rates.
So Eric Freedman at U.S. Bank is listening closely to company earnings calls.
Chief financial officers, he said, “are deciding: ‘Do we want to have more products out for sale, or do we think the consumer will actually not spend as much?'”
Jay Hatfield at Infrastructure Capital Advisors also predicted an upbeat earnings season. And while stocks are responding to those good numbers, “risk in the market has gone up,” he said. “The overhang from the Middle East and persistently high interest rates are likely to keep irrational exuberance under control.”
Not to mention that a government shutdown could be coming at the end of next week.
Which Krosby at LPL Financial said could take the focus off corporate earnings. However, “there’s an old saying in the market: It doesn’t matter till it matters,” she said. “Sometimes we just have to wait till that very last minute for the dynamics in Washington to unfold.”
Give it a week, she said, then maybe start to worry.
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