At least one analyst thinks so.
Pacific Crest analyst Chad Bartlev this morning cut his 2012 forecast for Kindle e-reader sales to 12.3 million units to 24 million, asserting that his latest checks find that Q1 Kindle component orders have fallen more than 75% from initial expectations in early January. “Visibility is extremely low, and orders could increase later this year around new devices, but our supply checks suggest 2012 volumes could be 50% lower than initially expected,” he writes.
Bartlev is holding on to his projections for Kindle Fire although he says uncertainty has increased for that particular product as well. Now this is one analyst but it’s the first analyst I’ve seen in a while to suggest that the bloom is off the rose in the world of Amazon doohickeys.
This gives me a few thoughts. I would like to share them with you.
1. Christmas is over. Leading up to the holiday season, people bought a ton of Kindles, especially as gifts. The Kindle and the Fire were shoved in your face every time you went to Amazon, which, leading up to the holiday, was often. But gift giving isn’t a big deal in March. And maybe the people who were going to get a Kindle already have one.
2. The economy is improving and maybe people aren’t so desperate to cut whatever cost they can and sacrifice quality. So we see the iPad topping three million in sales on opening weekend while the Fire may have stalled.
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