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My Two Cents

Periodic inflation scare

Chris Farrell Jun 8, 2007

We’re going through a periodic inflation scare. Basically, with central banks tightening (Europe) or standing firm (U.S.), and long-term interest rates racheting slightly higher (the 10 year Treasury breaking the 5% barrier) it’s hard to see an upward spiral in the overall price level.

Plus, I’m skeptical about the popular notion on Wall Street that wage pressures are mounting rapidly. The data isn’t very convincing. And conversations about the job market still seem dominated by how hard it is to get another offer rather than the joys of jumping ship.

Strong global economic growth and tight central bankers doesn’t translate into inflation. Hopefully, it means strong real growth, lots of real hiring, and stable real prices.

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