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Zandi: the Great Recession ... is coming to an end

With the Dow up 188 points and finishing in the 9000s, Marketplace's Jeremy Hobson did a quick-and-dirty straw poll of economists.

Mark Zandi, of Moody's Economy.com:
The Great Recession, the worst downturn since the 1930s Depression, is coming to an end.

Peter Morici, of the University of Maryland:
It's the beginning of the recovery, analysts are uncovering prospects for profits across the board.

Perhaps Peter and Mark were supping from the bottles being uncorked down on Wall Street today. They do know unemployment is at 9.5% nationally, and rising? They do read ratings agency stats that predict rising corporate defaults? They have seen the data on both commercial and residential real estate that indicate another crunch around the corner? Guys, economics is the dismal science, remember!

But "coming to an end" does not mean ended, I guess. The way Nouriel Roubini put it on Monday, in an interview with Nightly Business Report, the ending of this recession will be long, slow and painful.

In my view the recession is going to continue through the end of the year. It's not over yet, and while potential growth rate for the U.S. economy is 3 percent, I expect that the growth rate of the economy is going to be very anemic, below trend, then on 1 percent for the next two years.

Now that's my kind of economist.

About the author

Paddy Hirsch is the Senior Producer, Personal Finance at Marketplace and the creator and host of the Marketplace Whiteboard. Follow Paddy on Twitter @paddyhirsch and on facebook at www.facebook.com/paddyhirsch101
Tom Shillock's picture
Tom Shillock - Jul 28, 2009

Statements about the end of the recession are largely arbitrary economic PR; every pundit must say something because it sounds so important, meaningful and simple. But it means little for the average American. After all, where will economic growth come from? In 2005-06 financial industry profits accounted for 41 percent of U.S. business profits! Their fraud enriched them largely at the expense of other industries, countries and people; in aggregate terms it was to a great degree a zero-sum game. Those amazing GDP numbers are since 1994 but especially since 2004 were phony. Increasing amounts of our manufacturing has been offshored to lower cost countries over the past three decades. High tech has been increasingly offshored over the past two decades. Biotech will never deliver the jobs that high tech did. As Alan Blinder has pointed out service sector offshoring could be so large as to constitute a new industrial revolution (Offshoring: The Next Industrial Revolution?). In a more recent paper (How Many U.S. Jobs Might Be Offshorable?) he states: “Potential offshorability encompasses between 22% and 29% of all the jobs in the 2004 U.S. workforce, with the upper half of that range more likely than the lower half. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the more offshorable occupations are not low-end jobs, whether measured by wages or education.”