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Dynamic pricing goes wide

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Tess Vigeland: One of the big mysteries we face as consumers is how prices are set for the things we buy. We know there's supply and demand, of course. Sometimes you pay for the label, brand cachet. But there's a different kind of pricing that, for example, airlines use. It's computer-assisted and it resets prices constantly to make sure you pay as much as possible at all times.

As Marketplace's Steve Henn tells us, this type of up-to-the-second pricing is making its way to all sorts of products.


Steve Henn: By now, most airline passengers know that airlines change their prices constantly to try and squeeze as much money from travelers as possible. It's why you may have paid twice as much for your seat as the guy sitting next to you. This process is called dynamic pricing and a few industries have been using it for years. But now...

Andy Boyd: Oh, it's a hugely expanding field.

Andy Boyd is a dynamic pricing pioneer. He and wrote some of the earliest computer algorithms for airlines to change prices online automatically.

Bob Phillips is another pioneer. He says as more of the economy moves online, this practice is spreading.

Bob Phillips: Hotels, rental cars, freight...

Boyd: Ticket sales for concerts and for baseball games...

Phillips: Automotive, retail, consumer package goods, cruise lines...

Phillips says when its done right, dynamic pricing can boost profits at all sorts of businesses -- like banks. Phillips, who's also a professor at Columbia University, has created a formula that mixes a consumer's credit score with a his or her likelihood to shop around. Banks use that combo score to know whether to offer that consumer a competitive interest rate or a high one.

So what does this mean to a banks' bottom line?

Phillips: No, I can't give you a ball park. Let's say it can increase operating profit on the order of 7-12 percent.

And that's money coming out of consumers pockets.

Keep that in mind while I bring in Oren Etzioni, a computer science professor at the University of Washington. Etzioni was flying to his brother's wedding a decade ago when he asked the traveler sitting next to him how much he paid for his ticket. Turned out that guy got a much better deal than Etzioni did.

Oren Etzioni: I was actually somewhat incensed. I said wait a minute, why should that be? And I started thinking about can we use computer methods -- algorithms -- to figure out when is the right time to buy your ticket.

In other words, beat the dynamic pricing geniuses at their own game. Etzioni started collecting online price data from all the airlines -- then he created his own formula that could predict when the airlines would raise or lower their prices. His company was bought by Microsoft. And today, when you search for flights on Microsoft's Bing search engine, you'll see an arrow letting you know you if the price of that ticket is likely to head up or down.

Now Etzioni wants to do it again. He and his partner Mike Fridgen have launched.

Mike Fridgen: So our tagline is "no regrets."

This time they're predicting the prices of electronics -- phones, cameras laptops and flat-screen TVs. When Mike came by my office, my wife and I were debating whether or not to buy a new television.

Fridgen: Fantastic. Let's check 'em out. We're going to help you decide whether you should buy or wait.

When we logged on to, it showed me the lowest price available for the TV we were looking at -- anywhere in the country. It showed me a price history for the product and when the next model would come out. Decide recommended we buy it -- and we did.

But what makes this site different is that it offers its best guess at whether the prices of that TV are going to go up or down. Prices for electronics tend to bounce around.

Fridgen: You can see drops of $100-200 over the course of a couple of days.

Sometime though, computerized pricing goes haywire. Earlier this year, two computer pricing algorithms ran amok on Amazon. The algorithms eventually set the price of a classic textbook on fruit flies at more than $24 million.

In Silicon Valley, I'm Steve Henn for Marketplace.

About the author

Steve Henn was Marketplace’s technology and innovation reporter for the entire portfolio of Marketplace programs until December 2011.
Tim McCaffrey's picture
Tim McCaffrey - Sep 30, 2011

Dynamic pricing exists in most businesses. It used to be referred to as "yeild management" and yes, even Southwest Airlines does it. Their website openly displays the price on the same seat changing day-to-day. Ever try to buy a seat to Florida during Spring Break? It's simply supply and demand. However, some would rightly argue that it's like selling generators at double the price during hurricane season.

Denis Cancellara's picture
Denis Cancellara - Sep 29, 2011

I always wondered how the airlines did it. At least these guys redeemed themselves with decide.com.
Denis
http://www.labelink.ca/

Evelyn Kiresen's picture
Evelyn Kiresen - Sep 27, 2011

"Dynamic pricing" is no more or less a 21th century form of haggling. It is unfair, immoral and should be outlawed,It hows the true degenerate nature of uregulated capitalism.

Daniel S's picture
Daniel S - Sep 26, 2011

Let's not forget that Amazon's cloud collapsed about six months ago. They are certainly having some serious software issues.

Kyle Anderson's picture
Kyle Anderson - Sep 26, 2011

I was disappointed by the negative tone towards dynamic pricing. There are many instances where dynamic pricing is a good thing for consumers. For example, hotels use it to sell off unsold inventory before it expires. Rather than focusing on how it allows firms to earn more profits or charge higher prices, you could have easily focused on how it allows firms to give consumers discounts. While some may pay higher prices, others will certainly pay lower, and price sensitive consumers can find good deals.

Howard Thompson's picture
Howard Thompson - Sep 26, 2011

I just heard your piece on dynamic pricing (26Sep2011) and I have a question:

If dynamic pricing is so great, why is it that the major carriers (airlines) that use it don't make a profit but Southwest turns a profit without dynamic pricing? If dynamic pricing made as big a difference as its promoters claim, wouldn't we expect this to be the other way around? Am I missing something?

John Godfrey's picture
John Godfrey - Sep 26, 2011

Dynamic pricing, eh? Yesterday we tried to buy 2 tickets on Spirit. The Spirit website showed the seats as available with total price of $487. Entered credit card info, and the website responded Class Not Available. For the next 15 minutes, with the website still showing the seats available at this price, we tried two more times with the same results. Finally got through to the off-shore Spirit call center and were told "this fare is no longer available," and that the seats now cost $350 more. The call center staff said they had no authority to sell the tickets at the price as shown. And lo and behold, about 25 minutes into this ordeal, the Spirit website removed the lower fares, replacing them with those we were hearing from Bangalore. And complaints or a higher authority. Only email. This is not "dynamic pricing," but raw bait-and-switch. Where's the Congressional investigation of digital marketplace manipulation?