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Hot inflation, slowing wage growth fuels affordability crisis

Based on this week’s jobs report, growth in average hourly earnings slowed to 3.5%, while price inflation is heating up.

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Above, a construction crew works on a data center in Ashburn, Virginia. Wage increases and job demand in fields related to the AI boom are currently strong.
Above, a construction crew works on a data center in Ashburn, Virginia. Wage increases and job demand in fields related to the AI boom are currently strong.
Nathan Howard/Getty Images

On Tuesday, we got the official government jobs report for November, and we get the delayed November consumer price index on Thursday. What we know so far based on the data we’ve already gotten, though, is that wage gains are slowing, while price inflation is heating up. And that’s exacerbating the ongoing affordability crisis facing American consumers.

In November, average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year over year. That’s down from January, when wages were growing 4%.

“And that’s very consistent with a slowing in demand for labor,” said Nationwide economist Kathy Bostjancic.

In a sluggish job market, she explained, workers have less leverage to demand higher wages. Meanwhile, as wage growth has weakened, inflation has strengthened.

Back in April, when President Donald Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, prices were rising 2.3% a year. By September, that was up to 3% — meaning that consumers’ purchasing power is deteriorating.

“And that just adds to the affordability strain that households feel,” Bostjancic said.

“The majority of Americans are indeed going backwards,” said University of Maryland economist Peter Morici.

There are exceptions though, he noted. “There are all these folks in artificial intelligence and the supporting industries, putting up data centers and so forth, that are getting very good wages and wage increases.”

That’s because that sector is hot (for now), and workers — from IT to construction — are in high demand.

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