As we often report, the consumer price index is more than the topline number. In fact, the Bureau of Labor Statistics gives a trove of pricing data on a long and granular list of products and services. And in some of those categories, inflation is rising at a faster clip than the overall numbers. 

Household furnishings and supplies showed a 0.7% increase from June to July. Footwear was up 1.4%; infant and toddler apparel was up 3.3%. Could these categories offer clues about where prices in the rest of the economy are headed?

Kate Quinn Organics sells clothes for babies and kids, and works closely with an overseas supplier. 

“They have in-house dyeing, in-house printing, everything is done in India,” said Kaila McCoy, the retailer’s chief of staff, Kaila McCoy.

The company downsized and laid off workers earlier this year to absorb a baseline 10% tariff on its products. 

“We went from having a warehouse where we did our own fulfillment to outsourcing it to a third party logistics company,” McCoy said.

That helped the company keep a lid on prices, until a few weeks ago, when President Trump started ratcheting up tariffs on goods from India to 50%. 

“You can only eat so much of that cost,” McCoy said.

She said the company is now gradually increasing prices — their popular baby bodysuits went from $16 to $17.

And it’s not just reliance on an Indian supplier that exposed Kate Quinn Organics to tariffs. Clothes are seasonal, so it’s tough to order far in advance. 

“For some goods it's harder to build up anticipatory inventories,” said Kadee Russ, an economist at the University of California, Davis.

She said while some sectors are still selling from pre-tariff stockpiles, others have to be more responsive in how they price imports. 

“Maybe they’re perishable. Maybe they’re just really big and so costly to store. You might think of some furniture items,” she said.

Products that can already have pretty thin profit margins, said Zac Rogers, a professor of management at Colorado State University. 

“There’s plenty of margin built into an iPhone. There’s less margin built into a toy,” he said.

Rogers is paying attention to how tariffs are rippling through those supply chains that are already exposed to shifting trade policy. 

“Eventually it will spill over into electronics, it will spill over into some commodity stuff, into grocery,” he said.

When those sectors run out of levers to pull, he said consumer prices could rise more quickly.