Start with the fact that most consumers don’t spent a whole lot on imported goods.
One reason is that demand has surged from electrifying vehicles and furnaces — and from the rush to build new data centers.
Nicole Cervi at Wells Fargo explains how she uses public inflation and jobs data in her work.
We learned Tuesday that consumer prices are relatively stable across many goods and services, despite higher tariffs. On Thursday, we learned producer prices are spiking.
In San Diego, prices rose at 4% during the year ending in July. But in Dallas, inflation was less than 1%.
Household furnishings and supplies showed a 0.7% increase from June to July. Footwear is up 1.4%. Infant and toddler apparel is up 3.3%.
Many companies are still working through inventory they stocked before the tariffs hit — but some products are starting to get more expensive.
Keep your eye on an inflation measure that focuses exclusively on goods except for food and energy.
Most of the time deflation is a signal of a struggling economy. Disinflation — when prices still increase, just more slowly — is the goal.
Prices may continue to stay high if services and imports rise in tandem.