Soybeans have become a flashpoint in President Donald Trump’s trade war with China. But China’s moratorium on purchasing U.S. soybeans appears to be over. 

Chinese buyers put in a big order this week, bringing the total volume for 2025 up to almost 1 million tons. That’s a small step toward the 12 million tons Trump says China has committed to buying before the end of the year. 

For context, that would amount to less than half of what it imported last year. 1 million tons of U.S. soybeans is a fraction of what China would normally have purchased by November. 

But it’s more than zero tons, which is what we were looking at before President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping started talking. 

“It’s also psychologically good for the market because the markets look at this and go, ‘Oh, this is the first of more to come,’” said Stephen Nicholson, global sector strategist for grains and oilseeds at Rabobank.

He said there’s reason to be skeptical: Xi hasn’t actually confirmed that commitment to ramp up orders by the end of the year. Plus, the supply chain won’t reboot overnight. 

“By the time you get all the buying done, you know the logistics, the vessels in place, get it loaded, it’s just going to be really tough,” Nicholson said.

And China’s track-record of sticking to trade war promises is rocky, according to Kristen Owen, an agriculture sector senior analyst at Oppenheimer. 

“We’ve seen this playbook before where there is a commitment and ultimately China becomes a price-sensitive buyer,” she said.

And you know who’s gearing up for a bumper crop of cheap soybeans? Brazil and Argentina — the countries that have been stepping in to supply the Chinese market. 

Meanwhile, American farmers have to make decisions. 

Soybean farmer Brian Warpup in northeast Indiana stored most of this year’s harvest when prices were subdued. Now that the U.S. and China are talking, prices are rallying. 

“I feel that it is at a profitable level. So I might as well start selling at a profitable level,” he said.

Warpup will use that revenue to buy seeds for 2026, which he’ll plant around April — hopefully with a clearer sense of where U.S. soybean growers stand with their most important buyer.