If you take a look at credit and debit card data, you can get a feel for how consumers are spending. The Bank of America Institute did exactly that — and found spending jumped in October, both month to month and year over year. Consumers are spending more partly because they can, and partly because they have to. 

Last month, at the dawn of holiday shopping season, consumers turned up the spending by almost 2.5%.

“The year over year growth rate is the fastest since early 2024,” said David Tinsley, senior economist at the Bank of America Institute. “It’s been increasing for the last five months.”

But spending more did not mean we were getting more. Tinsley said the amount of stuff we buy hasn’t actually changed that much since January, we’re just paying more for it.

“In part due to tariffs, in part due to just overall inflation,” said Matt Shulz, chief consumer finance analyst at LendingTree. “Anybody’s who’s thinking that the budget from last year is going to get them the same amount of gifts this year is probably going to end up being a little disappointed.”

On average, consumers are actually planning on spending less this holiday season, according to Conference Board senior economist Stephanie Guichard.

“On average, $990 on gifts and nongifts, this is down 6.9% from last year,” she said.

That is what we have been telling ourselves and people who do surveys. What we say and what we do are different though, and in reality, according to forecasters, we will probably spend more.

“We’re expecting holiday spending to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% this year, and that is a pretty positive number,” said Mark Mathews, chief economist at the National Retail Federation. 

One reason shoppers may end up spending more is because some of them can.

“They’re supported by strong fundamentals, like continued wage growth, near record levels of household wealth, good disposable income growth, and relatively low unemployment,” Matthews said.

That said there’s a big divide between lower income and higher income spending right now. One tip from Shulz on staying within your holiday shopping budget: Make a list before you go out.

“Impulse buys have wrecked a whole lot of holiday budgets over the years,” Shulz said.

Good luck everyone.