In November the private sector added the most jobs since 2007
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TEXT OF INTERVIEW
JEREMY HOBSON: Now let’s get to today’s employment report with Richard DeKaser, economist at the Parthenon Group. He’s with us live from Boston. Good morning.
RICHARD DEKASER: Good morning.
HOBSON: So the payroll company ADP says in November, the private sector added most jobs since 2007. Is that as good as it sounds?
DEKASER: You know Jeremy I think it is. And a couple of reason: analysts are really focused on what the government is going to tell us happen in November. That number comes out on Friday. But the ADP payroll report is the single best predictor of that. So to see a number as high as it has been is very encouraging. Secondly though, ADP has been running low of the government’s figures to a substantial degree over the past year, falling short in 11 of the past 12 months. And on average by about 90.000 so it’s quite possible we could see an even stronger figure from the government.
HOBSON: Now also on the job front — Congress did not extend unemployment benefits for some 2 million people who will start to lose federal assistance as of today. These are people who have been collecting unemployment for a long time, almost 2 years. A lot of them probably won’t be getting their old jobs back. What’s going to happen to this chunk of the workforce that just can’t find jobs?
DEKASER: I think it’s important to appreciate how big a deal this is. The last time the unemployment rate was where it is today, back in the eighties, the average duration of unemployment was about twelve weeks, now it’s twenty. And there’s basically three options: they will leave the labor force, they will stay unemployed, or they will find alternatives. And which of those three is going to depend entirely on how the economy’s doing.
HOBSON: Richard Dekaser, economist at the Parthenon Group. Thanks as always for your time.
DEKASER: My pleasure.
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