The November consumer price index came out last week, which showed cooling inflation —kind of. (The data release came with a whole bunch of caveats.)

One important category, food at home, was a part of that cooling. But — and you probably don’t need an inflation report to tell you this if you’ve been anywhere near a grocery store recently — the price of beef continues to skyrocket.

Meat in general is up nearly 9% from a year ago. Ground beef is up nearly 15% and beef roasts are up a whopping 21% as many Americans head into a week of holiday cooking.

We talk a lot about how terrible consumers feel about prices and how many of them, especially upper income households, keep spending anyway. That split is maybe best illustrated at the supermarket, said David Anderson, an agriculture economist at Texas A&M. 

“Everybody goes to the store and we all complain a lot, but we stuck in the cart anyway and moved on to the next thing,” he said.

Despite rising prices, Americans likely consumed more beef in 2024 than they had in nearly 15 years. Some theories: The pandemic coaxed people into cooking more intimidating foods. Protein is very in right now, especially with the growing GLP-1 crowd. It’s all juiced demand. 

Meanwhile, Anderson said, supply isn’t keeping up.  

“We’ve got the fewest beef cows since 1961. Our total cattle inventory is the smallest since 1951. So we’re producing fewer animals,” he said.

Ranchers are hesitant to expand because of all the risks. There was a similar beef bubble about a decade ago and record high prices led to a collapse. Years of drought have made production difficult.

Plus, Derrell Peel, a livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State, said borrowing costs are still high. “So there’s just a lot more caution on the part of producers and lenders,” he said.

Also, beef production is a process. It takes several years to increase the size of a herd. And to do that, ranchers have to take heifers — the females — out of production. 

“Beef production will actually squeeze even tighter as a part of that process,” Peel said.

Glynn Tonsor, an agriculture economist at Kansas State University said imported beef isn’t going to help bring prices down, because of tariffs. 

“The volatility and lack of predictability in that has sort of been off the charts in 2025,” he said.

So the cost of a burger or steak will probably keep rising, unless Americans demand less and decide beef is not what’s for dinner.