This holiday season is looking gloomy for people in search of temporary retail jobs. Hiring for those positions is expected to be the weakest in 15 years.

But retail, of course, isn’t the only industry that ramps up payrolls at this time of year. 

Alan Benson, an associate professor at the University of Minnesota, applied for some seasonal retail jobs as part of his research a few years ago. He didn’t get one then. And now?

“My luck would probably be worse,” he said.

That’s because the unemployment rate has ticked up, and more people are looking to earn a little extra money.

Raj Namboothiry of Manpower said the staffing company has seen about a 10% increase in applications for temp jobs this season. But at the same time, “at a just a high level, job postings did decline 2% month over month in October and is now about 5% lower year to date, compared to 2024,” he said. 

Some companies may be asking existing employees to take on more shifts rather than hiring more seasonal workers, said labor economist Alicia Modestino at Northeastern University.

Though, she said, places that hold holiday parties — restaurants, bars, and event venues — still have demand for workers. 

“A lot of this labor supply that usually fills those kinds of jobs is typically immigrant labor, and so we've seen a lot of chilling effect on that particular group in terms of engaging in the labor market,“ Modestino said.

Some companies have announced their plans to hire, and that ‘hire’ number is lower than in previous years, she said. “But other companies have refused to even announce what their plans might be, which is creating a lot of uncertainty in the market.”

Another industry looking for temp workers? Transportation and warehousing.

Sumir Meghani, CEO of the staffing app Instawork, said its data shows those opportunities are up 20% to 25% year over year. 

“I think some of that … is related to tariffs, the economy, global conflict, just a lot of uncertainty has led that sector to want to be very conscious about how much full-time labor they're investing,” he said.

Seasonal hiring trends give insight into how employers are feeling about the economy heading into the busiest time of the year, said Cory Stahle, senior economist at Indeed.

“Overall, what we're seeing in seasonal hiring right now is really a reflection of what we're seeing in the broader labor market,” he said. That is, a cooling market that’s getting harder and harder to break into.