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September retail sales fail to impress

New data on retail sales today that gave a sense of all-important consumer spending as we head into the heart of the holiday shopping season.

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“If you look at the components of the retail sales report that go into producing consumers spending and the GDP accounts it was basically zero,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“If you look at the components of the retail sales report that go into producing consumers spending and the GDP accounts it was basically zero,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
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There was a whole bunch of data this morning that had been delayed because of the government shutdown. The biggie being retail sales for September. Spending was up 0.2%. That’s growth, sure, but less growth than the month before and less growth than what economists were expecting.

The overall feeling about September’s retail sales report?

“Blah,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

He said slowing sales growth isn’t necessarily a red flag, especially after retail sales went up more than expected in August. But it’s clear September’s data isn’t a reason to celebrate.

“Just feels like consumers coming into the Christmas buying season are kinda tired,” Zandi said.

That fatigue carried across categories. Car sales fell by 0.3%. Electronics and appliances dropped 0.5%. Clothing sales are down 0.7%.

“If you look at the components of the retail sales report that go into producing consumer spending and the GDP accounts it was basically zero,” said Zandi.

Blah, blah and more blah. Of course, one month of one type of data doesn’t tell us exactly where the economy is heading.

“You can’t look at any data report in a vacuum,” said Sam Zief, global macro strategist at JP Morgan Private Bank. 

Remember, this was September retail sales. We’re still missing October. And we won’t get an October jobs report because of data that didn’t get collected during the government shutdown. A report out from ADP today said private sector job losses ramped up over the last month. 

“Definitely shows that the labor market is going through a soft patch,” said Zief.

Which has a direct impact on how much people spend in this consumer-driven economy. There’s also missing fresh data on inflation, information that helps economists understand where retail sales increases are coming from. The last inflation reports show prices keep rising.

“What that says is people are spending more money, but getting less in return,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank.

So much so that Bovino said even higher income households are changing their shopping habits.

“We’re seeing a bit more trading down and searching for value than certainly we had not seen in the past,” Bovino said.

That means, there could be more “blah” ahead.

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