In a post on his social media platform on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said cattle ranchers “have to get their prices down.” Trump also claimed that the high tariffs he placed on imports from Brazil this year are the reason ranchers are doing well.

The reality is more complicated, though, and there’s no quick fix.

Beef prices have risen sharply because the supply of cattle in the U.S. is down ever since a drought and a spike in grain prices a few years ago led many ranchers to send their cattle to market, because they couldn’t feed them.

“After that, we did not have, then, a replenishing supply of beef,” said Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing.

There are about 6 million fewer cattle in the U.S. now than in 2020, she said. Yet demand for beef hasn’t let up, because people are really into protein right now.

“People aren't going to give up hamburgers, they're not going to give up tacos, they're not going to give up spaghetti,” Blohm said.

And ranchers aren’t going to give up a really good market for their product, says Daniel Sumner at UC Davis. That’s driving how they manage their herds.

“The young heifer can either become a cow and have her own calves, or she can become a steak,” he said.

With beef prices so high, ranchers have been saying, “‘I can't keep that heifer to be a cow. She's just too valuable,’” Sumner said. “Well then, how do you build the herd?”

He added that the federal government could bring down beef prices by lowering tariffs to encourage more imports.