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COVID-19

Business economists predict tough winter before 2021 rebound

Meghan McCarty Carino Dec 7, 2020
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A new survey from the National Association for Business Economists predicts just moderate economic growth in the last quarter of 2020. Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty Images
COVID-19

Business economists predict tough winter before 2021 rebound

Meghan McCarty Carino Dec 7, 2020
Heard on:
A new survey from the National Association for Business Economists predicts just moderate economic growth in the last quarter of 2020. Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty Images
HTML EMBED:
COPY

Many national business forecasters expect the economy to get back to pre-pandemic levels by the second half of next year. That’s according to a new survey from the National Association for Business Economists. But they still think it’s going to be a tough haul this winter after businesses saw growth this fall.

Patricia Moody is a consultant who works with a bicycle manufacturer in South Carolina. The company was busy all through the summer and fall.

“It was just a delightful surprise,” Moody said. “People would line up to get the unassembled bicycles as they came off the trucks.”

Consumer spending helped boost some businesses according to an October NABE survey. Now forecasters are more positive about the economic prospects for late next year.

“Unquestionably, the news about a vaccine soon to be available, has, I think, sparked a good deal of optimism,” said Ken Simonson, an economist who works with the NABE.

But the recent surge of COVID-19 has tempered expectations for this winter.

“So I think, you know, there’s still a long way to go,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist with the National Association of Manufacturers.

While Moutray said overall manufacturing is down about 5% since before the pandemic, he points out car sales and electronics have done better than expected.

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