What to watch for in next week's Q3 earnings

The thing about a good second quarter is that it ups the ante for quarters three and four.

Third-quarter earnings season moves into full swing next week, starting with big-name financial institutions and consumer-facing companies. After splashy events in Q2 — like SpaceX’s IPO — these companies have set a higher bar for themselves.

“And in particular that’s led to higher and higher expectations for 2026 overall,” said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank.

Q3, on the other hand, has been marked by spiking oil prices and an interest rate hike. The answers to how those events have impacted companies are right around the corner.

“The biggest names remain the most important, but also the early reporters are quite instructive,” Haworth said.

Banks usually lead earnings season. Other financial institutions follow close behind.

“Maybe Capital One is your best benchmark,” said Alexander Yokum, vice president of equity research at CFRA Research. “A player like American Express, if you’re kind of curious who’s the high end consumer — I think that’s sort of your place to go. And on the banking side, a Wells Fargo is a good barometer.”

Yokum said that banks offer a pretty complete picture of how businesses and consumers are doing.

“Companies are going to say the consumer is fine, for now,” he said. “But then, the future outlook, I do think sentiment will be down.”

Rising interest rates could slow lending and encourage more saving — which banks don’t love. They would earn less interest and pay more out.

To really drill down into understanding how consumers are doing, though, you have to wait for reports from companies like Procter & Gamble and The Kraft Heinz Company.

Erin Lash, senior director of consumer equity research at Morningstar, said that does mean picking apart the big numbers — like revenue and income and cashflow — but the little numbers can be especially instructive.

“If a consumer has less dollars to spend maybe they aren’t using as much shampoo,” Lash said. “[Or, like] at the height of the great financial crisis we saw this, they weren’t using as much toilet paper, believe it or not.”