Signs point to continuing job growth, but it's not all good news

Private sector jobs saw a bump in the latest report from payroll processor ADP. In April, employers added 109,000 jobs — more than expected, and nearly double what employers added in March, with both the smallest businesses and the largest ones hiring new workers at a healthy clip. It all bodes well for the April jobs report coming from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.

That good jobs news comes after a confusing and volatile start to the year: Job creation was up 160,000 in January, down 133,000 in February and up 178,000 in March. Unemployment edged down to 4.3% at the latest tally.

Economists’ predictions for April job creation are all over the map, from 50,000 on up. Bill Adams at First Third Commercial Bank is predicting 120,000 new jobs, after the bullish report on private sector growth from ADP.

“Employers added jobs at the fastest pace since early 2025, jobless claims ticking lower in recent weeks, another sign that people who are losing jobs are finding them relatively quickly,” he said.

It’s true, the Iran war and soaring oil prices are a major source of uncertainty for employers going forward.

But Adams said after holding back on hiring in the face of tariff uncertainty last year, many businesses are now feeling more confident.

“With tailwinds from tax cuts at the turn of the year, increases in government spending and then the Fed’s rate cuts in late 2025, I think a lot of businesses feel they are ready to move forward with some hiring that they may have delayed in 2025,” Adams said.

There are worrying signs in the mix of jobs this economy is creating, said Dan North, senior economist at credit insurer Allianz Trade.

“What growth there has been in jobs has mostly come in one industry: healthcare,” he said, driven largely by the needs of aging Baby Boomers. “That to me is a little bit fragile. Gosh, what would it be if we didn’t have an aging population. Well then you’d have to wonder: ‘Where is the growth coming from?’”

Another cause for concern is deteriorating wage growth, said Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Back in 2024 and 2025, average hourly earnings were rising around 4% per year. But by March 2026, wage gains had fallen to just 3.5%, at the same time inflation was spiking from the Iran war.

“In a context where inflation’s somewhere around 3%, you’re talking about real wage growth going to near-zero,” Baker said, which erodes workers’ purchasing power.

More on this puzzling labor market

• Mid-career crisis: The unemployment rate is improving. For a lot of experienced workers, it doesn't feel that way

• Race and the economy: Black unemployment is trending up. Policy is likely driving it

• Explained: What is underemployment?

• Low-hire, low-fire: If continuing unemployment claims are down, why is it so hard to find a job?